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Box office normally starts to pick up when the calendar turns to November, moving from $90-100 million per weekend through most of October to $120 million or more per weekend in early November (building toward $185 million or more for the Friday-Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend). Last year’s first weekend of November featured brilliant counter-scheduling of three films serving very different audiences (an animated family movie, Megamind, an adult comedy, Due Date, and a female-skewing For Colored Girls). This year two comedies open against each other, and this weekend should be down almost 30% from the same weekend last year.
At about 2,800 theaters, A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas from Warner Brothers should average a mediocre $5,900 per theater (for $16.5 million this weekend). The R-rated comedy has not been released for reviews. This movie is probably headed for around $43 million domestically. The first in the saga, Harold & Kumar Go to White Castle, opened with $5.5 million the weekend of 7.30.2004 (74% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes), ending with $18.3 million domestically and $5.7 million overseas. Next, Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay opened with $14.9 million the weekend of 4.25.2008 (53% positive reviews), finishing with $38.1 million domestically and $5.4 million overseas.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
November 4-6 Positive Weekend Total*
Tower Heist Uni PG13 78% $29.5 $ 92
A Very Harold & Kumar WB R n/a $16.5 $ 43
Christmas
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The second weekend of Puss in Boots should be down a decent 30%, reflecting good word of mouth and catch-up business in the Northeast, where a very early snowstorm disrupted movie business — and the delivery of electricity — last weekend and into this week.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
November 4-6 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Puss in Boots DW/Par -30% $24.0 $128
Paranormal Activity 3 Par -55% $ 8.5 $117
In Time Fox -44% $ 7.0 $ 28
Footloose Par -34% $ 3.7 $ 55
Real Steel Sony -32% $ 3.5 $ 87
The Rum Diary FilmDis -41% $ 3.0 $ 17
Ides of March DW/DIS -27% $ 2.0 $ 42
The Three Musketeers Summ -46% $ 1.9 $ 20
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $119 million total, ranking 27th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $143 million (with three movies opening to a collective $98 million by serving different audiences and genre fans), and the same weekend in 2009 was $107 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $103 million, down a withering 28% from this weekend last year and down 14% from the four-year average for this weekend.
This Weekend Last Two Years
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday’s early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.
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