The 45th weekend of the year is looking like $174 million for the top 12 films, which would be a record for the second weekend of November.
Opening at over 3,800 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Thor: The Dark World from Disney and Marvel should average a robust $25,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $95.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews are positive at RottenTomatoes: 75% positive so far. Thor: The Dark World is on track for $225 million domestic, above the $181.0 million domestic total for Thor, which opened with $65.7 million May 6-8, 2011.
Opening an estimated 2,500 theaters Friday, About Time from Universal should average a horrific $2,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $6.5 million opening three-day weekend on top of the approximately $1.5 million it should have in the bank through Thursday from a week-long preview at 175 theaters). Early reviews are positive: 65% positive. But the movie has near record low awareness in tracking studies. About Time should be headed for $18 million domestic.
|
NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND November 8-10, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Thor: The Dark World | Dis | PG13 | 75% | 95.5 | 225 | |
| About Time | Uni | R | 65% | 6.5 | 18 | |
Three holdovers should be right around $11 million this weekend. A few hundred thousand dollars will separate second and fourth place overall this weekend.
|
RETURNING FILMS November 8-10, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Ender’s Game | LG/Sum | -58% | 11.4 | 75 | |
| Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa | Par | -45% | 11.1 | 114 | |
| Last Vegas | CBS | -33% | 10.9 | 48 | |
| Free Birds | Rel | -38% | 9.8 | 55 | |
| 12 Years a Slave | Fox S | +78% | 8.6 | 26 | |
| Gravity | WB | -39% | 7.8 | 260 | |
| Captain Phillips | Sony | -35% | 5.5 | 104 | |
| Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs | Sony | -40% | 2.5 | 117 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $133 million total, ranking 24th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $163 million (while 2011 was $126 million and 2010 was $112 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $174 million (a record for this weekend), up 31% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 7% from the comparable weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
11.9.12
Skyfall SONY PG13 Daniel Craig Judi Dench
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $81 Actual: $88
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $264 Actual: $304
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $804
11.11.11
Immortals REL R Henry Cavill Stephen Dorff
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $32
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $78 Actual: $83
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $143
Jack and Jill SONY PG Adam Sandler Katie Holmes
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $60 Actual: $74
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $76
J. Edgar WB R Leonardo DiCaprio Naomi Watts
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $34 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $42
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
About the Author
