The 41st weekend of the year is looking like a fairly soft $106 million for the top 12 films, down 13% from this weekend last year but down a more moderate 5% from the multi-year average for this weekend.
Opening at over 3,000 theaters Friday (slightly above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Captain Phillips from Sony Pictures should average $7,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $23.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews are very supportive at RottenTomatoes: 90% positive overall. Captain Phillips should be on track for $76 million domestic.
Opening at 2,538 theaters Friday, Machete Kills from Open Road Films and Robert Rodriguez should average a weak $3,200 per theater for the weekend (for a not so hot $8.0 million opening three-day weekend). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are mixed: 43% positive. Machete Kills should be headed for $22 million domestic, slightly below the $26.6 million for Machete (which opened to $11.4 million September 3-5, 2010).
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND October 11-13, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Captain Phillips | Sony | PG13 | 90% | 23.5 | 76 | |
| Machete Kills | OpenRoad | R | 43% | 8.0 | 22 | |
But Gravity will remain the center of the box office universe this weekend. Down less than 30% from its opening weekend to almost $40 million this weekend and combined with almost $25 million Monday-Thursday (a very healthy first mid-week), Gravity will total round $120 million through Sunday. We have upgraded the domestic total outlook to $228 million and it could keep going up from there. If our estimates for this weekend hold, Monday through Sunday will total $64 million, a number significantly greater than the first three days ($55.5 million). Very few films have that kind of pattern so we should probably throw out all the models and just watch this great film exceed all expectations and brush aside all mathematical models.
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RETURNING FILMS October 11-13, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Gravity | WB | -29% | 39.5 | 228 | |
| Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs | Sony | -32% | 14.2 | 114 | |
| Runner Runner | Fox | -51% | 3.8 | 14 | |
| Prisoners | WB | -40% | 3.5 | 64 | |
| Insidious Chapter 2 | FilmDis | -36% | 2.5 | 78 | |
| Don Jon | Rel | -42% | 2.4 | 28 | |
| Rush | Uni | -49% | 2.3 | 31 | |
| Baggage Claim | Fox | -46% | 2.2 | 20 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $111 million total, ranking 36th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $121 million (while 2011 was $77 million and 2010 was $120 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a fairly soft $106 million, down 5% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down 12% from the comparable weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
10.12.12
Argo WB R Ben Affleck Bryan Cranston
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $92 Actual: $136
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $96
Sinister SUMMIT R Ethan Hawke
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $54 Actual: $48
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $30
Here Comes the Boom SONY PG Kevin James Salma Hayek
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $43 Actual: $45
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $28
Seven Psychopaths CBS R Colin Farrell Sam Rockwell
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $22 Actual: $15
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4
Atlas Shrugged Part II ATLAS PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $3 Actual: $3
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
10.14.2011
Footloose PAR PG13 Julianne Hough Andie MacDowell
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $59 Actual: $52
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $11
The Thing UNI R Joel Edgerton Mary Elizabeth
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $17
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $11
The Big Year FOX PG Jack Black Steve Martin
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $9 Actual: $6
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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