The 42nd weekend of the year is looking like $112 million for the top 12 films, down 8% from this weekend last year but down a smaller 2% from the multi-year average for this weekend.
Opening at over 3,000 theaters Friday (slightly above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Carrie from Sony Pictures should average $8,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $24.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews are non-existent at RottenTomatoes: Danger, Will Robinson, it’s being shielded. Carrie should have a fairly short run in theaters because of its horror genre and the lack of critical support, putting it on track for $60 million domestic.
Opening at around 2,750 theaters Friday, Escape Plan from Lionsgate/Summit should average a below par $3,300 per theater for the weekend (for a pretty weak $9.0 million opening three-day weekend). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are mixed: 42% positive. Escape Plan should be headed for $22 million domestic.
Opening at about 1,700 theaters Friday, The Fifth Estate from Disney should average a very weak $2,400 per theater for the weekend (for a pretty bad $4.0 million opening three-day weekend). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are also fairly weak: 41% positive. The Fifth Estate is the kind of movie that lives or dies by reviews. It should be headed for only $8 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND October 18-20, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Carrie | Sony | R | n/a | 24.5 | 60 | |
| Escape Plan | LG/Sum | R | 42% | 9.0 | 22 | |
| The Fifth Estate | Disney | R | 41% | 4.0 | 8 | |
But Gravity will remain atop the weekend chart in its third outing, declining a small 21% this weekend. Captain Phillips should also have a better than average second weekend drop, closer to -30%.
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RETURNING FILMS October 18-20, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Gravity | WB | -21% | 34.5 | 252 | |
| Captain Phillips | Sony | -28% | 18.5 | 84 | |
| Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs | Sony | -31% | 9.6 | 111 | |
| Prisoners | WB | -34% | 2.4 | 63 | |
| Runner Runner | Fox | -39% | 2.3 | 19 | |
| Insidious Chapter 2 | FilmDis | -34% | 1.8 | 82 | |
| Machete Kills | OpenRoad | -60% | 1.6 | 8 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $114 million total, ranking 34th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $121 million (while 2011 was $109 million and 2010 was $120 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $112 million, down 2% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but down a more significant 8% from the comparable weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
10.19.12
Paranormal Activity 4 PAR R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $46 Actual: $29
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $54 Actual: $54
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $87
Alex Cross SUMMIT PG13 Tyler Perry Matthew Fox
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $27 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4
10.21.2011
Paranormal Activity 3 PAR R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $42 Actual: $53
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $119 Actual: $104
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $102
The Three Musketeers SUMMIT PG13 Logan Lerman Christoph Waltz
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $20
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $112
Johnny English Reborn UNI PG Rowan Atkinson Rosamund Pike
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $9 Actual: $8
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $152
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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