This weekend is on track to be the fourth weekend in a row to be up over the previous years. Paranormal Activity 4 opens very large but will play out very quickly as the young, horror audience flocks to the first weekend. Tyler Perry puts down his Madea outfit and his writer-producer-director suit and simply stars in this crime thriller, which actually resurrects a James Patterson character previously played by Morgan Freeman in Kiss the Girls and Along Came a Spider.
Opening at over 3,000 theaters late Thursday evening, Paranormal Activity 4 from Paramount should average at least $15,400 per theater (for a $46.2 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Critics are not impressed (only 32% positive so far at RottenTomatoes — the weakest critical reception in the series by far), suggesting the horror film will have an especially quick burn out at the theaters.
Opening at around 2,400 theaters Friday, Alex Cross from Summit should average a decent $6,600 per theater (for a $16.0 million opening weekend). With 30% positive reviews so far (the usual critical cold shoulder for Tyler Perry), Alex Cross should end its run with $44 million domestic.
| NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND | ($ millions) | |||||
| October 19-21, 2012 | Critics Positive | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||
| Paranormal Activity 4 | Par | R | 32% | 46.2 | 102 | |
| Alex Cross | Summit | PG13 | 30% | 16.0 | 44 | |
| Paranormal Activity Track | ||||||
| Paranormal Activity 3 | 10.21.2011 | R | 68% | 52.6 | 104.0 | |
| Paranormal Activity 2 | 10.22.2010 | R | 59% | 40.7 | 84.7 | |
| Paranormal Activity 1 | 10.16.2009 | R | 82% | 19.6 | 107.9 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Argo will have a good second weekend in terms of percentage drop, but the first weekend base was nothing to write home about — so it will have to settle for a little over $12 million (leading the holdovers and placing third overall this weekend).
| RETURNING FILMS | ($ millions) | ||||
| October 19-21, 2012 | Change vs Last Weekend | Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||
| Argo | WB | -36% | 12.4 | 66 | |
| Hotel Transylvania | Sony/Col | -32% | 11.8 | 149 | |
| Taken 2 | Fox | -48% | 11.4 | 135 | |
| Sinister | Summit | -56% | 7.9 | 50 | |
| Here Comes the Boom | Sony | -39% | 7.3 | 35 | |
| Pitch Perfect | Universal | -36% | 5.9 | 73 | |
| Frankenweenie | Disney | -33% | 4.8 | 43 | |
| Looper | Sony/Tri | -40% | 3.7 | 72 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $114 million total, ranking 30th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $109 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $120 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very good $132 million, up 16% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and up 20% from last year. This will be the fourth significantly up weekend in a row if the forecast holds.
This Weekend Last Two Years
10.21.2011
Paranormal Activity 3 PAR R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $53
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $119 Actual: $104
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $102
The Three Musketeers SUMMIT PG13 Logan Lerman Christoph Waltz
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $20
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $112
Johnny English Reborn UNI PG Rowan Atkinson Rosamund Pike
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $9 Actual: $8
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $152
10.22.2010
Paranormal Activity 2 PAR R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $30 Actual: $41
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $103 Actual: $85
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $92
Hereafter WB PG13 Matt Damon Bryce Dallas Howard
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $33
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $72
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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