The 43rd weekend of the year is looking like $104 million for the top 12 films, 22% from the multi-year average for this weekend. And on its fourth weekend, Gravity will be knocked out of the top spot by…..Johnny Knoxville? That’s what it looks like.
Opening at over 3,000 theaters Friday (slightly above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa from Paramount should average $10,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $30.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews are positive at RottenTomatoes: 83% positive so far, but note that fewer than 20 reviews have been counted so far. Bad Grandpa is on track for $83 million domestic.
Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday, The Counselor from Twentieth Century Fox should average a below par $4,500 per theater for the weekend (for a soft $13.5 million opening three-day weekend). No early reviews yet at RottenTomatoes: the film is clearly being hidden from critics. The Counselor should be headed for $28 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND October 25-27, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa | Par | R | 83% | 30.5 | 83 | |
| The Counselor | Fox | R | n/a | 13.5 | 31 | |
Slipping to #2 overall, Gravity will remain the top holdover with another sub-30% weekend decline.
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RETURNING FILMS October 25-27, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Gravity | WB | -28% | 21.5 | 261 | |
| Captain Phillips | Sony | -30% | 11.6 | 99 | |
| Carrie | Sony | -49% | 8.2 | 42 | |
| Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs | Sony | -36% | 6.2 | 116 | |
| Escape Plan | LG/Sum | -50% | 4.9 | 25 | |
| 12 Years a Slave | Fox S | +214% | 2.9 | n/a | |
| Enough Said | Fox S | -14% | 1.5 | n/a | |
| Prisoners | WB | -42% | 1.2 | 64 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $86 million total, ranking 48th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $81 million (while 2011 was $94 million and 2010 was $85 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very solid $104 million, up 22% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 28% from the comparable weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
10.26.2012
Cloud Atlas WB R Ben Whishaw Tom Hanks
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $27
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $103
Silent Hill: Revelation 3D OPENROAD R Sean Bean Malcolm McDowell
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $16 Actual: $17
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $35
Fun Size PAR PG13 Victoria Justice Jane Levy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $10 Actual: $9
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1
Chasing Mavericks FOX PG Gerard Butler
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $5 Actual: $6
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
10.28.2011
Puss in Boots PAR/ DW PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $42 Actual: $34
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $165 Actual: $149
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $403
In Time FOX PG13 Justin Timberlake Amanda Seyfried
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $41 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $136
The Rum Diary FILMDIS R Johnny Depp Aaron Eckhart
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $18 Actual: $13
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $11
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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