This weekend is on track to be the fifth weekend in a row to be up over the previous years. None of the openers look like big hits — it’s just that Argo is hanging around very well in its third week and there are more films at or near $10 million this weekend than is usually the case in this last weekend of October.
Opening at around 1,950 theaters Friday, Cloud Atlas from Warner Brothers should average about $6,500 per theater (for a $12.6 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Critics are fairly positive (65% positive so far at RottenTomatoes), suggesting the film might have some playability.
Opening at 2,933 theaters, Silent Hill: Revelation 3D from Open Road Films should average a sub-par $3,900 per theater (for an $11.4 million opening weekend). Like the rest of the films opening this weekend, this Silent Hill has not been released for early reviews. The horror film should max out at about $23 million domestic (well below the $47 million domestic gross from the original Silent Hill in April 2006).
Opening at around 2,800 theaters, Fun Size from Paramount should average a pitiful $2,300 per theater (a $6.3 million opening weekend). The Halloween comedy might top out at $13 million domestic.
Finally, opening at around 2,000 theaters, Chasing Mavericks from 20th Century Fox should average a similarly awful $2,200 per theater ($4.3 million opening weekend) on its way to maybe $9 million domestic.
| NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND | ($ millions) | |||||
| October 26-28, 2012 | Critics Positive | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||
| Cloud Atlas | WB | R | 65% | 12.6 | 41 | |
| Silent Hill: Revelation 3D | Open Road | R | n/a | 11.4 | 23 | |
| Fun Size | Par | PG13 | n/a | 6.3 | 13 | |
| Chasing Mavericks | Fox | PG | n/a | 4.3 | 9 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Argo should have another very moderate decline in its third weekend and will probably remain in the top position this weekend.
| RETURNING FILMS | ($ millions) | ||||
| October 26-28, 2012 | Change vs Last Weekend | Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||
| Argo | WB | -22% | 12.9 | 98 | |
| Hotel Transylvania | Sony/Col | -27% | 9.6 | 146 | |
| Paranormal Activity 4 | Par | -68% | 9.3 | 62 | |
| Taken 2 | Fox | -42% | 7.7 | 133 | |
| Alex Cross | Summit | -50% | 5.7 | 28 | |
| Here Comes the Boom | Sony | -36% | 5.4 | 44 | |
| Sinister | Summit | -46% | 4.8 | 51 | |
| Pitch Perfect | Universal | -35% | 4.4 | 69 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $84 million total, ranking 48th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $94 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $85 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very good $94 million, up 12% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and similar to last year. This will be the fifth up weekend in a row versus the multi-year averages if the forecast holds.
This Weekend Last Two Years
10.28.2011
Puss in Boots PAR/ DW PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $42 Actual: $34
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $165 Actual: $149
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $403
In Time FOX PG13 Justin Timberlake Amanda Seyfried
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $41 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $136
The Rum Diary FILMDISR Johnny Depp Aaron Eckhart
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $18 Actual: $13
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $11
10.29.10
Saw 3D LG R Kimberly Elise Janet Jackson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $23
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $50 Actual: $46
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $90
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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