After a good weekend last week (up 18% from the comparable weekend average), this weekend is poised to be a very good first weekend of October (up over 40% and around $126 million for the top 12 films).
Opening at about 3,000 theaters Friday, Taken 2 from 20th Century Fox should average a very good $13,900 per theater (for a $41.8 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] But watch out for some pretty steep drops in the second and third weekends: early reviews at RottenTomatoes are running at a meager 9% positive. The film should end with $113 million domestic, compared to $145 million for Taken back in January 2009.
Opening at around 2,900 theaters Friday, Frankenweenie from Disney should average a middling $5,300 per theater (for a $15.4 million opening weekend). With 85% positive reviews, this family should play well and go on to gross $76 million domestic.
| NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND | ($ millions) | |||||
| October 5-7, 2012 | Critics Positive | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||
| Taken 2 | Fox | PG13 | 9% | 41.8 | 113 | |
| Frankenweenie | Disney | PG | 85% | 15.5 | 76 | |
| Pitch Perfect (wide) | Universal | PG13 | 74% | 13.0 | 44 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Much of this weekend’s success will be due to the decent second weekends for Hotel Transylvania and Looper.
| RETURNING FILMS | ($ millions) | ||||
| October 5-7, 2012 | Change vs Last Weekend | Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||
| Hotel Transylvania | Sony/Col | -40% | 25.5 | 145 | |
| Looper | Sony/Tri | -42% | 12.1 | 64 | |
| End of Watch | Open Road | -47% | 4.2 | 48 | |
| Trouble with the Curve | WB | -42% | 4.3 | 42 | |
| House at the End of Street | Relativity | -49% | 3.7 | 33 | |
| Finding Nemo 3D | Disney | -52% | 2.0 | 50 | |
| The Master | Weinstein | -40% | 1.6 | 19 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $87 million total, ranking 46th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $85 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $81 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a terrific $126 million, up 45% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and up 48% from last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
10.7.2011
Real Steel DW/DIS PG13 Hugh Jackman Evangeline Lilly
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $27
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $93 Actual: $85
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $210
Ides of March SONY R George Clooney Ryan Gosling
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $44 Actual: $41
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $34
10.8.2010
Life As We Know It WB PG13 Katherine Heigl Josh Duhamel
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $15
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $49 Actual: $53
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $52
Secretariat DIS PG Diane Lane John Malkovich
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $54 Actual: $60
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1
My Soul to Take UNI R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $14 Actual: $15
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $6
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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