Weekend #38 of 2014 is looking like $104 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 20% from the norm for this weekend.
Opening at around 3,500 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Maze Runner from 20th Century Fox should average a solid $9,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $34.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early critical sentiment is fairly positive: 67% positive reviews so far. Maze Runner is on track for around $95 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $185 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $280 million.
Opening at around 2.500 theaters Friday, A Walk Among the Tombstones from Universal should average a mediocre $6,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $15.5 million opening three-day weekend). Somewhat positive critical sentiment so far: 69% positive among early reviews. A Walk Among the Tombstones is on track for around $50 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross $120 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $170 million.
Opening at around 2.750 theaters Friday, This Is Where I Leave You from Warner Brothers should average a sub-par $4,100 per theater for the weekend (for an $11.0 million opening three-day weekend). Split critical opinion so far: 56% positive among early reviews. This Is Where I Leave You is on track for around $35 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross maybe $15 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $50 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND September 19-21, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Maze Runner | Fox | PG13 | 67% | 34.5 | 95 | |
| A Walk Among the Tombstones | Uni | R | 69% | 15.5 | 50 | |
| This Is Where I Leave You | WB | R | 56% | 11.0 | 35 | |
No Good Deed and Dolphin Tale 2 should be the top holdovers, each somewhat over $10 million for the weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS September 19-21, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| No Good Deed | Sony | -51% | 11.8 | 65 | |
| Dolphin Tale 2 | WB | -36% | 10.1 | 62 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy | Dis | -27% | 5.9 | 335 | |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles | Par | -36% | 3.1 | 192 | |
| Let’s Be Cops | Fox | -31% | 3.0 | 83 | |
| The Drop | FoxS | -39% | 2.5 | 19 | |
| If I Stay | WB | -42% | 2.3 | 52 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $86 million total, ranking 46th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $73 million (while 2012 was $75 million, 2011 was $106 million and 2010 was $91 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very good $104 million, up 20% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 42% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
9.20.2013
Prisoners WB R Hugh Jackman Jake Gyllenhaal
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $69 Actual: $61
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $61
Battle of the Year Sony PG13 Josh Holloway Chris Brown
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $6 Actual: $9
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $8
9.21.2012
Trouble with the Curve WB PG13 Clint Eastwood Amy Adams
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $42 Actual: $36
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $13
End of Watch OPENROAD R Jake Gyllenhaal Michael Pena
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $50 Actual: $41
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $7
House at the End of the Street REL PG13 Jennifer Lawrence Elizabeth Shue
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $34 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $8
Dredd 3D LG R Karl Urban Olivia Thirlby
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $13
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $22
The Master WEINS R Joaquin Phoenix Philip Seymour Hoffman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $5 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $12
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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