September 3, 2014

Weekend Box Office Predictions SEP 5-7

Weekend #36 of 2014 is looking like $54 million for the top 12 films this weekend, down 13% from the norm for this weekend, which is usually the weakest weekend of the year.  In the last two years, this weekend has produced Riddick, The Words and The Cold Light of Day.  But those look like mega-hits compared to this week’s lone wide-release.

Opening at around 1,950 theaters Friday (well below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Identical from Freestyle Releasing should average a disastrous $1,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $2.3 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early critical sentiment is very weak: 13% positive reviews so far. The Identical is on track for around $4 million domestic. Overseas the film could be maybe $1 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $5 million.



September 5-7, 2014

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
The Identical Free PG n/a 2.3 4
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Guardians of the Galaxy looks like the only movie headed for more than $10 million this weekend. 


September 5-7, 2014

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Guardians of the Galaxy Dis -31% 11.8 318
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Par -45% 6.6 187
Let’s Be Cops Fox -40% 5.0 75
If I Stay WB -47% 4.9 52
The November Man Rel -41% 4.7 25
As Above/So Below Uni -59% 3.6 17
When the Game Stands Tall Sony -42% 3.5 29
The Hundred-Foot Journey Dis -34% 3.2 50
The Giver Weins -41% 3.1 40


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $62 million total, ranking 52nd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $66 million (while 2012 was $52 million, 2011 was $65 million and 2010 was $66 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a tepid $54 million, down 13% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down 18% from the same weekend last year.


This Weekend Last Two Years


Riddick Uni R Vin Diesel Karl Urban
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $21 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $47 Actual: $42
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $56


The Words CBS PG13 Bradley Cooper Olivia Wilde
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $12 Actual: $11
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $2

The Cold Light of Day Summit PG13 Henry Cavill Bruce Willis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $1 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $0 Actual: $4
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $13


Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.