Last weekend we said domestic box office would get back on track, and it turned out to be another very weak weekend (the third weekend in a row down around 20%). We are going out on a limb again this week, forecasting an okay box office performance, with the top 12 films generating about $88 million (down only 3% from a typical weekend this time of year).
Opening at about 3,300 theaters Friday, Hotel Transylvania from Sony/ Columbia should average $7,200 per theater (for a $23.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Hotel Transylvania should go on to gross $94 million total domestically, with a better than average multiple over the opening weekend (typical for an animated family film). At RottenTomatoes, early reviews are mediocre: 52% positive so far.
Opening at around 2,800 theaters Friday, Looper from Sony/ TriStar should average a similar $6,900 per theater (for a $19.5 million opening weekend). A sci-fi thriller would usually play out very rapidly, but reviews have been superior (92% positive so far), suggesting solid word of mouth potential. Looper should go on to gross $59 million domestic.
Opening at around 2,500 theaters, Won’t Back Down from 20th Century Fox should average a mediocre $2,200 per theater (for a $5.5 million opening weekend). The drama starring Maggie Gyllenhaal and Viola Davis will appeal exclusively to older women, and the weak critical response (32% positive so far) dooms this film to a soft opening and a small $12 million total domestic gross.
Finally, platforming at an initial 300+ theaters Friday, Pitch Perfect from Universal should average a solid $8,300 per theater (for a $2.7 million quasi-opening weekend). Critics say the music/ comedy is fine (71% positive in early reviews), and the younger cast headlined by Anna Kendrick should attract some women who are actually in the habit of going to movies. The film could eventually take in $18 million domestic.
| NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND | ($ millions) | |||||
| September 28-30, 2012 | Critics Positive | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||
| Hotel Transylvania | Sony/Col | PG | 52% | 23.5 | 94 | |
| Looper | Sony/Tri | R | 92% | 19.5 | 59 | |
| Won’t Back Down | Fox | PG | 32% | 5.5 | 12 | |
| Pitch Perfect | Uni | PG13 | 71% | 2.7 | 18 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Not a great crop of holdovers, with End of Watch leading the way with a $7.5 million second weekend (just under the average $7.8 million second weekend for all wide-release films in the past two years).
| RETURNING FILMS | ($ millions) | ||||
| September 28-30, 2012 | Change vs Last Weekend | Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||
| End of Watch | Open Road | -43% | 7.5 | 46 | |
| Trouble with the Curve | WB | -42% | 7.1 | 45 | |
| House at the End of Street | Relativity | -52% | 5.9 | 24 | |
| Finding Nemo 3D | Disney | -52% | 4.6 | 58 | |
| Resident Evil: Retribution | Sony | -56% | 3.0 | 42 | |
| The Master | Weinstein | -33% | 3.0 | 23 | |
| Dredd 3D | Lionsgate | -53% | 3.0 | 14 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $91 million total, ranking 44th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $90 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $86 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $88 million, down a small 3% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and down only 2% from last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
9.30.2011
50/50 SUMMIT R Seth Rogen Joseph Gordon-Levitt
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $37 Actual: $35
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4
Dream House UNI PG13 Daniel Craig Rachel Weisz
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $17
What’s Your Number? FOX R Anna Faris Chris Evans
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $15 Actual: $14
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16
Courageous SONY PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $35
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
10.1.2010
The Social Network SONY PG13 Jesse Eisenberg Justin Timberlake
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $26 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $92 Actual: $97
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $128
Let Me In OVERTURE R Kodi Smit-McPhee Chloe Moretz
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $12
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $12
Case 39 PAR R Renee Zellweger Jodelle Ferland
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $13 Actual: $13
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $15
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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