The 36th weekend of the year (usually the lowest-grossing weekend of the year) is looking like $73 million for the top 12 films, actually above the four-year average for this weekend ($65 million) and way above last year’s stuning bad $52 million on this weekend. Nothing to get excited about, but not the black hole it could be. A decent opening for Riddick and continued solid business from The Butler and, to a lesser extent, We’re the Millers should keep the box office in acceptable shape for this tough spot in the calendar as people focus on going back to school and return their attention to the NFL.
Opening at around 2,800 theaters Friday (very close to the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Riddick from Universal should average $8,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $23.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] The early reviews at RottenTomatoes are okay: 63% positive so far with many more reviews to come in. Look for the positive review score to settle in the mid- to high-50s. Riddick should be on track for $56 million domestic, near the $57.8 million domestic total for The Chronicles of Riddick (which opened to $24.3 million June 11-13, 2004).
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND September 6-8, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Riddick | Uni | R | 63% | 23.5 | 56 | |
The Butler remains the class of the holdovers, as One Direction rapidly descends the chart. Last year on this weekend, the #1 film (the second weekend of The Possession) only grossed $9.3 million, while the #2 film (the second weekend of Lawless) only scraped together $6.0 million.
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RETURNING FILMS September 6-8, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Lee Daniels’ The Butler | Weins | -35% | 9.7 | 112 | |
| We’re the Millers | WB | -40% | 7.7 | 139 | |
| Instructions Not Included | LG/Sum | -28% | 5.7 | 18 | |
| One Direction: This Is Us | Sony | -66% | 5.4 | 35 | |
| Planes | Dis | -39% | 4.8 | 87 | |
| Elysium | Sony | -54% | 3.0 | 93 | |
| The Mortal Instruments | Sony | -50% | 2.8 | 30 | |
| Blue Jasmine | Sony | -32% | 2.8 | 36 | |
| Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters | Fox | -40% | 2.7 | 65 | |
| The World’s End | Uni/Foc | -48% | 2.6 | 32 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $65 million total, ranking 52nd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $52 million (while 2011 was $65 million and 2010 was $66 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a relatively decent $73 million, up 13% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 41% from the disastrous comparable weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
9.7.2012
The Words CBS PG13 Bradley Cooper Olivia Wilde
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $12 Actual: $11
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $2
The Cold Light of Day SUMMIT PG13 Henry Cavill Bruce Willis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $0 Actual: $4
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $13
9.9.11
Contagion WB PG13 Matt Damon Marion Cotillard
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $21 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $85 Actual: $76
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $60
Warrior LG PG13 Joel Edgerton Tom Hardy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $21 Actual: $14
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $9
Bucky Larson: Born to be a Star SONY R Nick Swardson Stephen Dorff
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $1
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $-3 Actual: $2
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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