April 28, 2013


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #17 of 2013 is looking like $81 million for the top 12 films, down 33% from the average the past few years for this weekend and down 16% from the same weekend last year.  Michael Bay’s Pain and Gain opened fairly quietly — not a total disaster but nothing special.  Now Paramount can move on and focus on the real reason that the movie was made: it came along with the upcoming Transformers 4 (June of 2014) in the same deal.    

Opening at 3,277 theaters Friday, Pain and Gain from Paramount grossed $7.5 million Friday and a soft $7.4 million Saturday.  The studio claims the film is on track for a $20.0 million opening weekend, although I expect it will be more like $19.5 million (below the impressive-sounding $20 million benchmark but still somewhat above the $18.8 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging a mediocre $6,100 per theater for the weekend (somewhat above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years), while critical sentiment is mixed: 47% positive at RottenTomatoes (and an identical 47% with top critics).  Count Mitch Salem in the negative column in his ShowbuzzDaily review.  Pain and Gain is headed for $58 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,633 theaters Friday, The Big Wedding from Lionsgate grossed $2.5 million Friday and $3.1 million Saturday is still on track for a $7.5 million opening weekend (below the $9.2 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging a really bad $2,800 per theater for the weekend, while critical sentiment is mocking: only 6% positive at RottenTomatoes (and an even worse 4% with top critics).  The Big Wedding is headed for a mere $15 million total domestic.

Still above the significant $10 million weekend level, both Oblivion and 42 are headed for around $100 million total domestic.

Weekend 17 April 26-28, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Pain and Gain Par [18.8] 20.5 20.0 7.5–7.4 58
Oblivion Uni [19.3] 16.8 17.4 5.2–7.8 104
42 WB [11.7] 10.0 10.7 2.9–4.9 99
The Big Wedding LG [9.2] 7.5 7.5 2.5–3.1 15
The Croods DW/Fox [6.5] 6.4 6.6 1.5–3.2 177
G.I. Joe: Retaliation Par [3.2] 3.5 3.6 .95–1.7 126
Scary Movie V Weins [2.9] 3.2 3.5 1.1–1.6 30
Olympus Has Fallen FilmDis [2.8] 2.8 2.8 .77–1.3 101
Place Beyond the Pines Focus [3.1] 2.7 2.7 .79–1.2 29
Jurassic Park 3D Uni [1.9] 2.3 2.3 .62–1.0 48
Mud [—] 2.2 n/a
Evil Dead Sony [—] 1.9 2.0 .62–8.6 55

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $81 million total Friday-Sunday, about the same as yesterday’s estimate ($80 million) and now down 33% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 16% from the same weekend last year.  This is the worst 17th weekend of the year since April 27-29, 2007, which only mustered $62 million for the top 12 films.  No film broke $10 million that weekend: Disturbia lead the way with $9.0 million for its third weekend, followed by the miserable opening weekends of The Invisible ($7.7 million) and Next ($7.1 million).

 WEEKEND #17 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $81 Pain and Gain $20, The Big Wedding $7.5
2012 $97 The Pirates! $11, Five-Year Engagement $11, Safe $8, The Raven $7
2011 $145 Fast Five $86, Prom $5, Hoodwinked Too! $4
2010 $92 A Nightmare on Elm Street $33, Furry Vengeance $7
2009 $150 X-Men Origins: Wolverine $85, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past $15
Avg 2009-12 $121

Check back later for the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.