June 30, 2013

Weekend Studio Estimates June 28-30

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #26 of 2013 now looks like $185 million for the top 12 films, up a bit from yesterday’s $181 million estimate and still very close to the same weekend in recent years.  

Opening at 3,181 theaters Friday, The Heat from 20th Century Fox grossed $13.6 million Friday and $14.3 million Saturday, now on track for a $40 million opening weekend (above the $34 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $12,600 per theater for the weekend (comfortably above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is positive: 64% positive overall at RottenTomatoes (with top critics an even more enthusiastic 73% positive). The Heat is headed for $129 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,222 theaters Friday, White House Down from Sony grossed $9.0 million Friday and $9.3 million Saturday, now on track for a lame $25.7 million opening weekend (well below the $39 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging only $7,900 per theater for the weekend, and critical sentiment is exactly mixed: 50% positive at RottenTomatoes with all critics, compared to 53% positive with top critics. White House Down is headed for maybe $75 million total domestic.

Weekend 26:June 28-30, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Monsters University Dis [43.2] 47.6 46.2 14.3–17.6 294
The Heat Fox [34.0] 36.7 40.0 13.6–14.3 129
World War Z Par [29.4] 29.2 29.8 8.9–11.6 197
White House Down Sony [39.0] 24.7 25.7 9.0–9.3 75
Man of Steel WB [20.0] 20.3 20.8 6.1–8.4 297
This Is the End Sony [8.7] n/a 8.7 2.6–3.3 104
Now You See Me Summit [5.4] 5.8 5.5 1.7–2.2 123
Fast & Furious 6 Uni [2.7] 2.3 2.4 .73–.99 240
Star Trek Into Darkness Par [1.9] n/a 2.0 .54–.85 227
The Internship Fox [1.6] 1.3 1.4 .42–.59 45
Iron Man 3 Dis [—] 1.4 .42–.61 408
The Purge Uni [1.7] 1.2 1.2 .40–.48 62

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $185 million total Friday-Sunday, up 2% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but down 6% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND #26 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $185 The Heat $40.0, White House Down $25.7
2012 $197 Ted $54.4, Magic Mike $39.1, TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection $25.4
2011 $192 Transformers: Dark of the Moon $97.9, Larry Crowne $13.1
2010 $181 Twilight Saga: Eclipse $64.8, Last Airbender $40.3
2009 $156 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs $41.7, Public Enemies $25.3
Avg 2009-12 $181

Check back later for the Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.