May 18, 2014

Weekend Studio Estimates MAY 16-18

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #20 of 2014 now looks like $171 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, somewhat less than the $177 million estimate yesterday but still up 17% from the norm for this weekend.  

Opening at 3,952 theaters, Godzilla from Warner Brothers grossed $38.5 million late Thursday/Friday and a slightly cooler $32.2 million Saturday, now putting the film on track for a $93.2 million opening weekend (below yesterday’s $98.0 million estimate but still well above our conservative $74.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a solid three-day average of $23,600 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is supportive (73% positive overall and 67% positive with top critics). Godzilla is now headed for $270 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,019 theaters, Million Dollar Arm from Disney grossed $3.5 million Friday and $4.3 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a tepid $10.5 million opening weekend (below our already bearish $14.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a sad three-day average of $3,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is fairly positive (60% positive overall and a similar 58% positive with top critics), but that won’t be enough to overcome such a small opening. Million Dollar Arm is now headed for $34 million total domestic.

Neighbors is still headed for $26.0 million in its second weekend (a touch below our forecast and down a just okay -47% from the opening weekend).  The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is now on track for $16.8 million this weekend (a little closer to forecast and down -53% from last weekend).  The second Andrew Garfield Spider-Man is now pacing toward a domestic total of $209 million.

Weekend 20: May 16-18, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Godzilla WB [74.0] 98.0 93.2 38.5–32.2 270
Neighbors Uni [27.0] 26.0 26.0 8.5–9.9 159
Amazing Spider-Man 2 Sony [16.3] 16.0 16.8 4.5–7.3 209
Million Dollar Arm Dis [14.5] 10.8 10.5 3.5–4.3 34
The Other Woman Fox [5.7] 6.4 6.3 2.1–2.7 86
Heaven Is For Real Sony [4.9] 4.7 4.4 1.2–1.8 94
Rio 2 Fox [3.1] 3.7 3.8 .87–1.7 127
Captain America: The Winter Soldier Dis [3.3] 3.8 3.8 1.0–1.6 259
Legends of Oz: Dorothy Returns Free [2.0] 1.9 1.95 .47–.88 7
Moms’ Night Out Sony [2.2] 2.1 1.90 .62–.72 8

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $171 million total Friday-Sunday, up 17% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 15% from the really weak total the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 20 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $171 Godzilla $93.2, Million Dollar Arm $10.5
2013 $148 Star Trek Into Darkness $70.6
2012 $136 Battleship $25.5, The Dictator $17.4, What to Expect When You’re Expecting $10.5
2011 $159 Pirates of the Caribbean $90.2
2010 $143 Shrek Forever After $70.8, MacGruber $4.0
Avg 2010-13 $146

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.