WEEKLY BOX OFFICE ACTUALS & YEAR TO DATE: July 9-15 — A Down Week But No Big Surprise

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A down week this week (last year boasted the opening of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2) erased the big gains last week, and now the year to year comparisons are back to where they were a few weeks (high single-digit percentages).

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between July 9 and July 15 grossed a sub-par $254 million, down 23% from the same week in 2011 and down 17% from the four-year average for the comparable week. Last year featured the opening of the final Harry Potter and in the other years a film much more worthy than Ice Age 4 has the weekend to itself.  Year to date ($5.753 billion for wide-release films) is now 9% ahead of 2011 (back to the same level it was two weeks ago).  Similarly, the year-to-date total is now 7% ahead of the more stable multi-year average for the similar period (a percentage point ahead of two weeks ago).

The past six weeks (from early-June through mid-July) total $1.550 billion, a shade below the same period in 2011 ($1.573 billion, down 1%) but down a more significant 4% from the multi-year average for the period ($1.615 billion).

Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimate

The studio estimates for the major films this weekend were fairly close: each of the top three films came in around 1% of its estimate.  The surprise was that two of the three estimates were conservative (the official numbers came in above the estimate).  Usually it’s the other way around.  Ice Age: Continental Drift came in at $46.629 million officially for its opening weekend, 1.4% above the estimate from Fox (based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and estimating Sunday’s take).  The second weekend of Amazing Spider-Man came in at $34.628 million, 1.1% below the estimate issued by Sony Sunday morning.  The third weekend for Ted came in at $22.411 million for Friday-Sunday, 1.2% above the Universal estimate.  

Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.