The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume
All films in wide release playing between September 17 and September 23 grossed a weak $107 million, down 12% from the four-year average for the week and down a big 24% from the same week last year. We have to go back to the same week in 2007 to find a comparably bad performance ($102 million for September 17-23, 2007, when Resident Evil: Extinction, Good Luck Chuck, The Brave One, 3:10 to Yuma and Eastern Promises topped the chart).
The past six weeks are still down 4% from the four-year average box office average but now down a more significant 8% from the same six-week period last year. Year to date box office (closing in on $7.5 billion for wide-release films) continues to cling to a 5% gain from the average for the past four years and a 4% gain over last year at this time.
Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through September 23, 2012 | ($ millions) | 2012 vs 2011 | 2012 vs 4yr Avg | |||
2011 | 4-year Average | 2012 | ||||
Week #38 | $141 | $122 | $107 | -24% | -12% | |
Past Six Weeks | $843 | $812 | $779 | -8% | -4% | |
Year to Date | $7,178 | $7,119 | $7,451 | +4% | +5% |
Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimate
End of Watch came in officially at $13,152,683 today for its opening weekend, up 1.2% from the Open Road Films estimate Sunday morning — the most conservative, and accurate, new film estimate this week.
House at the End of the Street came in at $12,287,234 in its opening weekend, down 5.5% from the Relativity estimate — a pretty bad forecast.
Trouble with the Curve ended up grossing $12,162, 040 in its first weekend, down 4.4% from the Warner Brothers estimate Sunday.
But Weinstein Company wins the big award for overstatement Sunday morning. The Master ended up grossing $4,391,092 in its first somewhat wide weekend, down an embarassing 12.2% from the bloated Sunday morning weekend estimate.
Updated Estimates of Final Grosses
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.
Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final Estimates | Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) | percentile | |
Expendables 2 | 88 | 73 | |
Finding Nemo 3D | 58 | 57 | |
ParaNorman | 58 | 57 | |
Odd Life of Timothy Green | 54 | 54 | |
The Possession | 51 | 51 | |
End of Watch | 46 | 49 | |
Trouble with the Curve | 45 | 49 | |
Resident Evil: Retribution | 42 | 45 | |
Lawless | 41 | 45 | |
2016 Obama’s America | 35 | 34 | |
The Master | 24 | 21 | |
House at the End of the Street | 24 | 21 | |
Sparkle | 24 | 21 | |
Premium Rush | 21 | 16 | |
Dredd 3D | 15 | 10 | |
Hit and Run | 14 | 9 | |
The Words | 13 | 7 |
Weekend Predictions September 28-30 should be posted Wednesday. This weekend features the openings of Hotel Transylvania (animation), Looper (sci-fi action) and Won’t Back Down (drama).