October 1, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between September 24 and September 30 grossed a decent $136 million, up 7% from the four-year average for the week and up a similar 8% from the same week last year.    

The past six weeks are now down 5% from the four-year average box office average and still down 8% from the same six-week period last year.  Year to date box office (closing in on $7.6 billion for wide-release films) continues to cling to a 5% gain from the average for the past four years and a 4% gain over last year at this time.

Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through September 30, 2012 ($ millions)  2012 vs 2011  2012 vs 4yr Avg
2011 4-year Average 2012
Week #39 $126 $128 $136 +8% +7%
Past Six Weeks $779 $758 $719 -8% -5%
Year to Date $7,304 $7,246 $7,587 +4% +5%


Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimate

Hotel Transylvania came in officially at $42,522,194 today for its opening weekend, down a modest 1.1% from the Sony estimate Sunday morning.  

Looper came in at $20,801,522 in its opening weekend, down 1.9% from the Sony estimate — not as precise but not a wild estimate.

Pitch Perfect ended up grossing $5,149, 433 in its first weekend, down 1.0% from the Universal estimate Sunday.


Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.  

Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final Estimates Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) percentile
Hotel Transylvania 144 88
Looper 64 62
Finding Nemo 3D 50 51
The Possession 50 51
End of Watch 48 51
Trouble with the Curve 42 45
Resident Evil: Retribution 41 45
Lawless 39 43
2016 Obama’s America 35 35
House at the End of the Street 33 33
Pitch Perfect 27 25
Premium Rush 20 15
The Master 19 14
Dredd 3D 15 10
Hit and Run 14 9
The Words 12 6
Won’t Back Down 5 1


Weekend Predictions October 5-7 should be posted Wednesday.  This weekend features the openings of Taken 2 (action), Frankenweenie (animation) and Pitch Perfect (musical comedy expanding wide).


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.