The weekend looks like a decent $124 million for the top 12 films, a little softer than it looked yesterday (but still significantly ahead of the comparable weekends the last few years). Paranormal Activity 4 gets a little weaker each day and now is projected to total $30.2 million in its opening weekend, although don’t be surprised if the actual weekend number reported tomorrow has a 2 in front of it, well below our bullish $46.2 million prediction for the film in Wednesday’s ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Forecast.
In contrast, Argo is on pace for a tiny 15% decline in its second weekend (to $16.2 million for the weekend and $43 million through Sunday). The Ben Affleck film set during the 1979 Iranian hostage crisis has been upgraded to a $93 million domestic final gross.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: Paranormal Activity 4 ($65 million) and Alex Cross ($28 million).
Second week films: Argo ($93 million, adjusted up sharply from the $68 million estimate last week), Sinister ($52 million, very similar to $51 million last week), Here Comes the Boom ($44 million, up somewhat from the initial $35 million estimate last week),and Seven Psychopaths ($20 million, very close to the $21 million estimate last week).
Third week films: Taken 2 ($133 million, down a touch from $137 million last week and $138 million the first week) and Frankenweenie ($40 million, down a bit from $43 million last week and $42 million the first week).
Fourth week films: Hotel Transylvania ($147 million, down a touch from $149 million last week and $142-$145 million the first two weeks), Looper ($70 million, down a bit from $72-73 million in weeks two and three and still up significantly from an initial $64 million estimate) and Pitch Perfect ($70 million, down a bit from $73 million last week, still up from $68 million in week two, and up sharply from the initial $27 million estimate).
| Weekend 42: Oct 19-21, 2012 | ($ millions) | ||||
| vs Last Wknd | Wknd Studio Proj. | Showbuzz Domestic Final | |||
| Paranormal Activity 4 | Par | 30.2 | 65 | ||
| Argo | WB | -15% | 16.6 | 93 | |
| Hotel Transylvania | Sony/ Col | -22% | 13.5 | 147 | |
| Taken 2 | Fox | -39% | 13.4 | 133 | |
| Alex Cross | Sum/ LG | 11.7 | 28 | ||
| Sinister | LG/ Sum | -50% | 9.0 | 52 | |
| Here Comes the Boom | Sony/ Col | -28% | 8.5 | 44 | |
| Pitch Perfect | Universal | -24% | 7.0 | 70 | |
| Frankenweenie | Disney | -37% | 4.4 | 40 | |
| Looper | Sony/ Tri | -32% | 4.2 | 70 | |
| Seven Psychopaths | CBS | -21% | 3.3 | 20 | |
| Perks of Being a Wallflower | LG/Summit | -0% | 2.2 | n/a | |
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $124 million total Friday-Sunday, up 9% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and up 13% from the same weekend last year.
| ($ millions) | |||
| WEEKEND #42 | Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend | |
| 2012 | $124 | Paranormal Activity 4 $30, Alex Cross $12 | |
| 2011 | $109 | Paranormal Activity 3 $53, Three Musketeers $9, Johnny English Reborn $4 | |
| 2010 | $120 | Paranormal Activity 2 $41, Hereafter $12 | |
| 2009 | $106 | Saw VI $14, Astro Boy $7, Cirque Du Freak $6, Amelia $4 | |
| 2008 | $120 | High School Musical 3 $42, Saw V $30, Pride & Glory $6 | |
| Avg 2008-11 | $114 | ||
Opening Next Week
Opening wide next weekend: Fun Size from Paramount (comedy), Silent Hill: Revelation 3D from Open Road Films (horror), Chasing Mavericks from 20th Century Fox (sports drama) and Cloud Atlas from Warner Brothers (art/ sci-fi). These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year: Puss in Boots ($34.1 million opening weekend), In Time ($12.1 million) and The Rum Diary ($5.1 million).
International grosses will be updated as available.
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