October 28, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The weekend looks like a mediocre $82 million for the top 12 films, a little softer than it looked yesterday (now slightly lagging the multi-year average for this weekend).  Argo continues to do well, as we expected, but the four openers all did even worse than our conservative predictions in Wednesday’s ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Forecast.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend:  Cloud Atlas ($31 million), Silent Hill: Revelation 3D ($11 million), Fun Size ($9 million) and Chasing Mavericks ($5 million).

Second week films:  Paranormal Activity 4 ($54 million, down from the $65 million initial estimate last week) and Alex Cross ($27 million, nearly identical to $28 million last week).

Third week films:  Argo ($97 million, up slightly from $93 million last week and up sharply from the $68 million the first week), Sinister ($51 million, very similar to $52 million last week and $51 million in week one), Here Comes the Boom ($43 million, similar to $44 million last week and up somewhat from the initial $35 million),and Seven Psychopaths ($20 million, matching $20 million last week and $21 million estimate the first week).

Fourth week films:  Taken 2 ($133 million, identical to last week, down a touch from $137 million the second week and $138 million the first week) and Frankenweenie ($38 million, down gradually from $40 million last week, $43 million the second week and $42 million the first week).

Weekend 43: Oct 26-28, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Argo WB -25% 12.4 97
Hotel Transylvania Sony/ Col -27% 9.5 153
Cloud Atlas WB 9.4 31
Paranormal Activity 4 Par -70% 8.7 54
Silent Hill: Revelation 3D Open Road 8.0 11
Taken 2 Fox -40% 8.0 133
Here Comes the Boom Sony/Col -35% 5.5 43
Sinister LG/Sum -42% 5.1 51
Alex Cross Sum/ LG -56% 5.1 27
Fun Size Par 4.1 9
Pitch Perfect Universal -42% 3.9 67
Frankenweenie Dis -44% 2.4 38
Chasing Mavericks Fox 2.2 5


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like an unimpressive $82 million total Friday-Sunday, down 2% from the comparable weekend the last four years and down 12% from the same weekend last year.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #43 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2012 $82 Cloud Atlas $9, Silent Hill Revelation $8, Fun Size $4
2011 $94 Puss in Boots $34, In Time $12, Rum Diary $5
2010 $85 Saw 3D $22
2009 $83 Michael Jackson’s This Is It $23
2008 $74 Zack & Miri Make Porno $10, Changeling $9
Avg 2008-11 $84

Opening Next Week

Opening wide next weekend:  Wreck-It Ralph from Disney (non-Pixar animation), Flight from Paramount (Drama) and The Man with the Iron Fists from Universal (action).  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  Tower Heist ($24.0 million opening weekend) and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas ($13.0 million).

International grosses will be updated as available.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.