WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES December 16-18

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>Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), the two sequels opening wide this weekend are not doing the business generally forecast, and they are under-performing the preceding movies in their series.  As a whole, the weekend is looking like $111 million for the top 12 films, down 13% from the same weekend last year.

December 16-18, 2011                Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Sherlock Holmes 2          (WB)     $40.2             $154
Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 (Fox)     $23.5             $140
Mission: Impossible 4     (Par)     $13.0             $180
New Year’s Eve          (WB/NL)     $ 7.4   -43%      $ 39
The Sitter                (Fox)     $ 4.4   -55%      $ 25
Twilight Breaking Dawn 1  (Sum)     $ 4.3   -45%      $271
Young Adult               (Par)     $ 3.7             $ 55
Arthur Christmas         (Sony)     $ 3.6   -45%      $ 51 Hugo                      (Par)     $ 3.6   -40%      $ 52
The Muppets               (Dis)     $ 3.4   -51%      $ 81
The Descendants           (Fox)     $ 3.3   -24%      $ 40
Jack and Jill            (Sony)     $ 1.2   -60%      $ 72
Happy Feet Two             (WB)     $ 1.0   -72%      $ 63

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.  

Sequel Film Track                   Opening   Domestic  Overseas
                                    Weekend    Total     Total

Sherlock Holmes         12.25.2009   $ 62.3    $209.0    $315.0


Alvin and the Chipmunks 12.14.2007   $ 44.3    $217.3    $144.0

Alvin…Squeakquel      12.23.2009   $ 48.9    $219.6    $223.5

Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a soft $111 million total Friday-Sunday, down 13% from the same calendar weekend last year.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #50

International numbers will be posted later today, and we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses on Monday.