>The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly weaker than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only). The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like a soft $96.5 million for the weekend, down 7% from last year’s weekend and down a similar percentage from the weekend’s average for the past four years.
The second week movies: John Carter ($82 million, adjusted up slightly), Silent House ($11 million, adjusted down slightly) and A Thousand Words ($16 million, adjusted up a bit).
The third week movies: Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax ($223 million, rebounding to the estimate from the first weekend) and Project X ($60 million, adjusted down slightly).
March 16-18 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
21 Jump Street (Sony) $35.0 $119
The Lorax (Uni) $22.8 -41% $223+
John Carter (Dis) $13.5 -55% $ 82+
Project X (WB) $ 4.0 -64% $ 60-
A Thousand Words (Par) $ 3.7 -39% $ 16+
Act of Valor (Rel) $ 3.7 -47% $ 72
Safe House (Uni) $ 2.7 -43% $130
Journey 2 Myster. Island (WB) $ 2.5 -32% $104
Casa de mi Padre (LG) $ 2.2 $n/a
This Means War (Fox) $ 2.1 -43% $ 55
Silent House (Open Road) $ 2.1 -69% $ 11
The Vow (Sony) $ 2.1 -46% $130
Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds (LG) $ 1.4 -52% $ 34
The Artist (Wein) $ 1.1 -49% $ 50
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a soft $96.5 million total Friday-Sunday, down 7% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 7% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years. This is the first down weekend versus 2011 in eight weeks and the first down weekend versus the multi-year average in five weeks.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #11
2012 $ 96 21 Jump Street $35
2011 $103 Limitless $19, Lincoln Lawyer $13, Paul $13
2010 $115 Diary Wimpy Kid $22, Bounty Hunter $21, Repo Men $6
2009 $ 96 Knowing $25, I Love You Man $18, Duplicity $14
2008 $ 99 Meet the Browns $20, Shutter $10, Drillbit Taylor $10
2008-11
Avg $103
Next Weekend
Opening wide next weekend are The Hunger Games from Lionsgate. This film will be compared to Diary of a Wimpy Kid ($23.8 million opening weekend) and Sucker Punch ($19.1 million).
Check back later today for our update on international grosses.
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