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December 18, 2011
 

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES December 16-18

>Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), the two sequels opening wide this weekend are not doing the business generally forecast, and they are under-performing the preceding movies in their series.  As a whole, the weekend is looking like $111 million for the top 12 films, down 13% from the same weekend last year.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening this weekend are headed for: Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows ($154 million), Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked ($140 million), Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol ($180 million) and Young Adult ($55 million).

Among the second week films, New Year’s Eve has been adjusted upward slightly ($39 million), while The Sitter is holding steady ($25 million). 




December 16-18, 2011                Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

Sherlock Holmes 2          (WB)     $40.2             $154
Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 (Fox)     $23.5             $140
Mission: Impossible 4     (Par)     $13.0             $180
New Year’s Eve          (WB/NL)     $ 7.4   -43%      $ 39
The Sitter                (Fox)     $ 4.4   -55%      $ 25
Twilight Breaking Dawn 1  (Sum)     $ 4.3   -45%      $271
Young Adult               (Par)     $ 3.7             $ 55
Arthur Christmas         (Sony)     $ 3.6   -45%      $ 51 Hugo                      (Par)     $ 3.6   -40%      $ 52
The Muppets               (Dis)     $ 3.4   -51%      $ 81
The Descendants           (Fox)     $ 3.3   -24%      $ 40
Jack and Jill            (Sony)     $ 1.2   -60%      $ 72
Happy Feet Two             (WB)     $ 1.0   -72%      $ 63

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.  

Sequel Film Track                   Opening   Domestic  Overseas
                                    Weekend    Total     Total

Sherlock Holmes         12.25.2009   $ 62.3    $209.0    $315.0


Alvin and the Chipmunks 12.14.2007   $ 44.3    $217.3    $144.0

Alvin…Squeakquel      12.23.2009   $ 48.9    $219.6    $223.5

Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a soft $111 million total Friday-Sunday, down 13% from the same calendar weekend last year.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #50

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $111  Sherlock Holmes 2 $40, Alvin Chipmunks 3 $23.5

2010  $128  TRON Legacy $44, Yogi Bear $16, The Fighter $12
2009  $130  Avatar $77, Did You Hear About Morgans $6.6
2008  $ 81  Yes Man $18, Seven Pounds $15, Tale of Despereaux $10
2007  $152  National Treasure Book of Secrets $45
2007-10
Avg   $122 

Next Weekend 

Next weekend, Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol (goes wide Wednesday), Adventures of Tintin (opens Wednesday), Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (opens Wednesday), We Bought a Zoo (opens Friday), War Horse (opens Christmas Day Sunday) and The Darkest Hour (opens Christmas Day Sunday).  These films will be compared to Little Fockers ($31 million opening weekend), True Grit ($25 million) and Gulliver’s Travels ($6.3 million) from the comparable weekend in 2010.

 

International numbers will be posted later today, and we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses on Monday.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.