OPENINGS: The Saturday hold for DUNKIRK (Warners) wasn’t as strong as those for other Christopher Nolan non-sequels, down 11% where Inception stayed steady, and Interstellar actually rose 8%, pushing the weekend studio estimate to $50.5M. Nevertheless, that’s a terrific start for a film that was far from a sure thing as a summer blockbuster. With its older-skewing audience and no other comparable spectacles opening for the rest of the summer, Dunkirk should have a long run, with $150M+ in the US and plenty of potential upside. Overseas, Nolan’s epic opened in 46 territories (not yet including major markets like Germany, Brazil, Italy, Japan or China) with a $55.4M start. Nolan doesn’t work cheap, and Dunkirk has $300M+ in costs to recoup, but it’s on the road to profit.
GIRLS TRIP (Perfect World/Universal) should be extremely profitable, with a $30.4M opening on costs that may not exceed $50M. (That doesn’t include any allowance for international marketing, since it’s not clear how much of an overseas run it will have.) Trip should reach $75M in the US, and $100M isn’t impossible. That puts it in the range of Kevin Hart hits like Think Like A Man ($91.5M), its sequel ($65.2M), and The Wedding Ringer ($64.5M).
VALERIAN AND THE CITY OF A THOUSAND PLANETS (Europa/STX) had no footing at all in the US with a $17M opening, and it probably won’t reach $50M here. Its only hope of recouping its $300M in costs lies overseas, where it’s taking a gradual approach, spreading worldwide over the next several weeks. However, its $6.5M start in 16 territories is far from promising. As we noted yesterday, the international distributors may end up taking the lion’s share of the losses.
HOLDOVERS: SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING (Marvel/Columbia/Sony) dropped 50% in its 3rd weekend to $22M, and it appears that a $300M US total will be a stretch. Overseas, it’s at $320M after a $33.2M weekend in 64 territories (not including China, Japan or Spain). At this point, it’s not clear whether Homecoming will reach the worldwide $757.9M of Amazing Spider-Man, which was below the Sam Raimi trilogy, the answer being largely dependent on its success in China.
WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES (TSG/20th) isn’t delivering the word of mouth that its reviews seemed to foretell. It dropped 64% in its 2d weekend to $20.4M, and may not get past $140M in the US, which would be down 30% from 2014’s Dawn. Overseas, it’s at $77.1M after a $17.2M weekend, and it, too, is waiting for China to end its summer blackout of Hollywood openings.
DESPICABLE ME 3 (Illumination/Universal) will face direct competition next weekend from The Emoji Movie, but slid only 34% this weekend to $12.7M, still on its way to $240M in the US. The bulk of its money, however, is coming from overseas, where it’s at $514.4M after a $47.5M weekend, with a few markets (including Italy) still to open. It should end up at $850-900M worldwide, which would be below the $1.16B for Minions and the $970.8M for Despicable 2, although still wildly profitable.
BABY DRIVER (MRC/TriStar/Sony) dipped only 31% on its 4th weekend to $6M, and seems to have enough gas in its tank to reach $100M in the US, a tremendous result for a relatively low-cost project. Overseas, it’s opened in less than half the world thus far, and is at $34.4M after a $8.3M weekend.
THE BIG SICK (Amazon/Lionsgate) isn’t quite at the same level of sleeper, although it’s doing fairly well. It dropped just 34% to $5M in its 2d week of wide release, and should reach $35M in the US.
WONDER WOMAN (RatPac/Huahua/Tencent/DC/Warners) is now the #1 movie of the summer in the US, down 32% for the weekend to $4.6M for a total of $389M, putting it ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2‘s $387.3M. Guardians, though, still has bragging rights worldwide, where its $472.7M international total has it at $860M, while Wonder Woman is at $779.4M thanks to $390.4M overseas (including $1.8M this weekend), with Japan still to open.
WISH UPON (Broad Green) fell 55% from its weak opening to $2.5M, and might get to $15M.
Despite the inflation-adjusted numbers being pushed by its studio, PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MEN TELL NO TALES (Disney) is far less successful than any of the other films in its franchise since the 2003 original. In the US, it’s basically done with $170.6M, down 30% from 2011’s On Stranger Tides. Far more serious, however, is the international total of $596.6M (after a $5.1M weekend), down more than 25% from Stranger Tides. With a worldwide total that will probably stop around $775M, Dead Men will be profitable, but another franchise entry that fell by the same amount would be a much tougher proposition.
LIMITED RELEASE: LANDLINE (Amazon/Magnolia) had a quiet start with a $13K average at 4 NY/LA theatres. THE MIDWIFE (Music Box) was even more muted, averaging $7K at 3. MAUDIE (Sony Classics) expanded to 233 theatres with a weak $1700 average. A GHOST STORY (A24) isn’t proving to have mainstream appeal, with a $3300 average at 43. LADY MACBETH (Roadside) similarly averaged $3100 at 40.
NEXT WEEKEND: Summer moves into a lower gear with the arrivals of ATOMIC BLONDE (Focus/Universal) and THE EMOJI MOVIE (Columbia/Sony). In addition, DETROIT (Annapurna) begins a one-week limited release before going wide, and AN INCONVENIENT SEQUEL: TRUTH TO POWER (Paramount Vantage) will hope to cause some environmental ruckus.
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