OPENINGS: The summer saga of underperforming franchise titles continued with WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES (TSG/20th), with a $56.5M start that’s 22% below the $72.6M opening for Dawn 3 years ago, and just barely ahead of the $54.8M for 2011’s Rise (despite costing $60M more to produce than Rise). Even with rave reviews, its Saturday drop was 13%, worse than Rise and Dawn‘s 1%/8%, which suggests word of mouth may not have been as strong among audiences as among critics. War seems to be headed to $150M in the US. Overseas, although War is in 61 markets, those reportedly cover just one-third of international box office, and notably don’t include China, which has begun its midsummer blackout of Hollywood titles (the next scheduled opening is Dunkirk on September 1). War had a $46M start, and that number will get much bigger, but will probably be closer to Rise‘s $305M than Dawn‘s $502.1M. With around $275M in production/marketing costs, War should be profitable, but the viability of further installments is in question.
THE BIG SICK (Amazon/Lionsgate) made its move to wide release at 2597 theatres, and found a moderate response at $7.6M. We’ll see if word of mouth can push it past $30M in the US, a number that wouldn’t get it to profit if the reported $32M in acquisition and marketing costs are accurate.
WISH UPON (Broad Green), a disposable piece of low-budget horror, was treated that way by audiences with a $5.6M opening.
HOLDOVERS: SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING (Marvel/Columbia/Sony) was expected to hold better than a 61% drop in its 2d weekend (to $45.2M). That’s almost identical to the Weekend 2 declines for Spider-Man 3 and The Amazing Spider-Man 2, which were generally considered inferior entries in the series (and ended their versions of the franchise), and although it’s not a bad drop compared to other Marvel offerings (60% for Captain America: Civil War, 59% for Avengers: Age of Ultron, 58% for Iron Man 3), it’s worse than this summer’s 56% for Guardians Of the Galaxy Vol 2, let alone the 43% for Wonder Woman. Passing $300M in the US now seems like a 50/50 shot. Overseas, it’s also a victim of the Chinese blackout, and it’s at $261.1M after a $72.3M weekend in 63 markets. At $750M or so worldwide, it will certainly be a hit, just not the phenomenon that seemed possible 10 days ago.
DESPICABLE ME 3 (Illumination/Universal) has the family market more or less to itself right now, and it dropped 44% to $18.9M, still on track for a franchise-low $225M in the US. Overseas, things are summer, with a total to date of $431.4M after a $71M weekend in 61 territories (including China, but not yet Japan). It seems to be heading for $850M worldwide, below Minions and Despicable Me 2.
BABY DRIVER (MRC/TriStar/Sony) is holding like a sleeper hit should, down just 33% to $8.8M, and with a chance to hit 9 digits in the US. Overseas, it’s in only 18 markets, and is at $23.1M after a $6.2M weekend.
WONDER WOMAN (RatPac/Wanda/Tencent/DC/Warners) dipped a mere 30% in its 7th weekend to $6.9M, and is about a week away from passing Guardians 2 as the #1 movie of the US summer, possibly even reaching $400M. Overseas, it’s nearing the end of its run with a $3.3M weekend in 61 markets (Japan still to come), putting its international total at $384.2M.
CARS 3 (Pixar/Disney) continued on its road to $150M in the US, down 41% to $3.2M. It’s still in gradual overseas release, and is at $82.9M after a $20.1M weekend in 33 territories.
One of the under-reported box office stories of the summer is the way international performance has been dropping for big franchise titles. TRANSFORMERS: THE LAST KNIGHT (Huahua/Paramount) is unlikely to get much past $130M in the US, and although that will be an ugly 47% drop from Age of Extinction, it’s only a moderate surprise. But overseas, Age of Extinction earned $858.6M, while Last Knight is at only $392.4M ($225M of it from China) after a $6.7M weekend, and even if it can match Age of Extinction in its remaining territories of Brazil, Mexico, Spain and Japan (unlikely), it would only get to around $500M, an awful 42% plunge. This is how franchises die. (See also Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, down 30% in the US, and also down 28% overseas.)
LIMITED RELEASE: LADY MACBETH (Roadside) had an OK start with a $14K per-theatre average at 5 NY/LA arthouses (boosted in part by in-theatre appearances by the star). A GHOST STORY (A24) widened to 20 theatres and averaged a soft $7300. THE LITTLE HOURS (Gunpowder & Sky) expanded to 105 theatres with a $3K average. MAUDIE (Sony Classics), now in 99 theatres, averaged $2600. LOST IN PARIS (Oscilloscope) averaged $2100 at 38. The documentary CITY OF GHOSTS (IFC) averaged $2400 at 11.
NEXT WEEKEND: The final true blockbuster weekend of summer has a pair of intriguing openings, Christopher Nolan’s WWII epic DUNKIRK (Warners), and Luc Besson’s phantasmagorical VALERIAN AND THE CITY OF A THOUSAND PLANETS (Europa/STX). They’ll be counterprogrammed by the R-rated comedy GIRLS TRIP (Universal). Limited releases include Sundance veteran LANDLINE (Magnolia).
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