July 9, 2017

Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 7.9.2017


OPENINGS:  SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING (Marvel/Columbia/Sony) was considerably more front-loaded than initial enthusiasm suggested, dropping 27% on Saturday, and pushing its weekend total to $117M.  While the weekend result was still a very big number, that Saturday decline was far steeper than the 8-9% Day 2 drops for Wonder Woman and Guardians of the Galaxy 2 earlier this season, and the worst Marvel result since the 33% drop for Age of Ultron.  It’s hard to tell at this point what this means in terms of the long-term picture for Homecoming, but it may have trouble getting past $300M in the US, which would put it ahead of the two Amazing Spider-Man movies, but behind all the Sam Raimi entries.  The better news for Sony was overseas, where Homecoming is playing as a part of the Marvel universe with a strong $140M start in 56 territories that reportedly cover only 60% of the international box office, with important locations like China, France, Germany and Japan still to come.  That suggests $800M+ worldwide is reachable, which would put it in the top half-dozen Marvel releases.

HOLDOVERS:  DESPICABLE ME 3 (Illumination/Universal) fell 53% in its 2d weekend to $34M, better than the 57% drop for Minions in percentage, but not close to that picture’s $49.3M.  (Despicable 2 opened on a Wednesday, so it’s not directly comparable.)  It still seems to be headed for $225M in the US, which would be make it the lowest in the Despicable franchise.  Overseas, it’s at $298.4M after a $139M weekend in 60 markets that was dominated by a $66M opening in China, the best start ever for an animated film, and with Japan and Italy among the territories still to open.  It should reach $800M worldwide, which would be down about 30% from Minions.

BABY DRIVER (MRC/TriStar/Sony) held very well, down 38% to $12.7M, and on its way to $80M in the US.  It’s in only 18 overseas markets to date, and is at $14M after a $3.9M weekend.

WONDER WOMAN (RatPac/Wanda/Tencent/Warners) was barely ruffled by the webslinger’s arrival, down a beautiful 36% in its 6th weekend to $10.1M, and with a current $368.8M looking as though it has the stamina to overtake Guardians 2 and its $385.6M to become the top movie of the summer.  Overseas, it’s at $377M after a $6.8M weekend, with Japan still on deck.

TRANSFORMERS: THE LAST KNIGHT (Huahua/Paramount0 continued to collapse.  In the US, it fell 62% to $6.3M and will only reach $130M or so.  Overseas, it’s at $375.7M after a $18.1M weekend, and although it hasn’t opened yet in Japan, Brazil, Mexico and Spain, it’s hard to see a path that gets it past even $650M worldwide, which would be down 40% from Age of Extinction.  Even if Last Knight shows a small profit, this is a disastrous result for Paramount, which is short on viable franchises.

CARS 3 (Pixar/Disney) lost 42% to $5.6M, on the road for $150M in the US.  Its overseas run is still getting underway, with $60M in 27 territories after a $3.4M weekend.

THE HOUSE (Good Universe/New Line/Warners) dropped 44% to $4.8M, and will struggle to reach $30M in the US.  It has $5.4M from overseas.

47 METERS DOWN (Entertainment Studios) has quietly become a solid sleeper, down a slim 37% in its 4th weekend to $2.8M, and on its way to $45M in the US, which will be surprisingly close to the $55.1M that Sony earned with The Shallows, on a much smaller marketing investment.  It hasn’t yet begun its overseas run.

THE BEGUILED (Focus/Universal) increased its theatre count by 40% (to 941) but still dropped 34% to $2.1M, with an anemic $2200 per-theatre average.  It’s unclear how much wider Focus plans to open, but the US total is unlikely to get much past $15M.

LIMITED RELEASE:  A GHOST STORY (A24) had a fair opening at 4 NY/LA arthouses with a $27K per-theatre average, although the very idiosyncratic supernatural tale may have trouble reaching a more mainstream audience.  THE BIG SICK (Amazon/Lionsgate) widened to 326 theatres with a promising $11K average.  THE LITTLE HOURS (Gunpowder & Sky) expanded to 37 with an OK $5200 average.  MAUDIE (Sony Classics) is now at 56 with a $2800 average.  13 MINUTES (Sony Classics) had a $1800 average at 9.

NEXT WEEKEND:  BATTLE FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES (20th) concludes the current trilogy of the franchise.  It will be counterprogrammed by the horror movie WISH UPON (Broad Green).  In addition, The Big Sick is scheduled to make its leap into wide release.  Film festival hit LADY MACBETH (Roadside) begins a limited run.

About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."