Twelve days into the three-week holiday movie season, 2012 is now 9.0% behind the average for the same period over the last several years ($362 million this year versus $398 million on average 2004-2011). Further, 2012 is 12.1% behind the last time Christmas fell on a Tuesday (2007’s $412 million over this period). After a dizzying drop on December 26 (down -24% from Christmas Day), December 27 behaved more normally (very similar to the box office performance in 2007, when the 27th also fell on Thursday).
| Holiday Season — First 12 Days | |||
| Top 10 Films by Day — $ millions | |||
| 2012 | 2007 | 2004-2011 average | |
| Dec 16 | 31.5 | 37.8 | 22.1 |
| Dec 17 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 27.2 |
| Dec 18 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 28.0 |
| Dec 19 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 23.3 |
| Dec 20 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 21.0 |
| Dec 21 | 27.8 | 50.1 | 25.4 |
| Dec 22 | 37.3 | 53.3 | 30.1 |
| Dec 23 | 32.0 | 44.9 | 35.6 |
| Dec 24 | 17.8 | 22.6 | 20.5 |
| Dec 25 | 68.1 | 57.4 | 56.6 |
| Dec 26 | 51.9 | 50.4 | 59.3 |
| Dec 27 | 45.8 | 45.6 | 48.5 |
| Dec 16-27 | 362 | 412 | 398 |
And looking only at years when December 27 is on a weekday, the $45.8 million this year on that date compares very well to the past decade. So overall box office volume was solid yesterday. But there are some worrisome signs when we look at the individual performance of the big Christmas openers. Les Miserables dropped another -25% (from $12.2 million on the 26th to $9.2 million on the 27th) and allowed The Hobbit to move into the top spot in the daily ranking chart. Django Unchained remained in third place but dropped -17% (from $10.0 million on the 26th to $8.3 million yesterday). The Hobbit fell a relatively modest -11%, the only film to turn in over $10 million yesterday ($10.1 million). The other holdovers dropped modestly (Jack Reacher -7%, This Is 40 -5% and Lincoln -2%), matching the minor -4% drop for Parental Guidance.
| December 27: Top 10 Films ($ millions) | |||||||
| Dec 27 on Weekdays | Dec 27 on Weekends | ||||||
| Top10 | #1 film | Top10 | #1 film | ||||
| 2012 | Thu | 45.8 | The Hobbit | 2009 | Sun | 75.9 | Avatar |
| 2011 | Tue | 45.6 | Mission Impossible 4 | 2008 | Sat | 60.5 | Marley & Me |
| 2010 | Mon | 41.6 | Little Fockers | 2003 | Sat | 56.1 | Return of the King |
| 2007 | Thu | 45.6 | National Treasure | 2002 | Fri | 50.8 | Two Towers |
| 2006 | Wed | 42.0 | Night at Museum | ||||
| 2005 | Tue | 40.1 | Chronicles of Narnia | ||||
| 2004 | Mon | 36.9 | Meet the Fockers | ||||
If Les Miserables and Django Unchained continue to free-fall we could start to see serious erosion in the overall box office. Fasten your seatbelts for a very interesting weekend ahead.
| Holiday Season: Top 10 Films by Day | |||||
| $ millions — Average 2004-2011 | |||||
| Dec 16 | 22.1 | Dec 23 | 35.6 | Dec 30 | 45.4 |
| Dec 17 | 27.2 | Dec 24 | 20.5 | Dec 31 | 37.9 |
| Dec 18 | 28.0 | Dec 25 | 56.6 | Jan 1 | 50.1 |
| Dec 19 | 23.3 | Dec 26 | 59.3 | Jan 2 | 39.7 |
| Dec 20 | 21.0 | Dec 27 | 48.5 | Jan 3 | 22.9 |
| Dec 21 | 25.4 | Dec 28 | 44.2 | Jan 4 | 17.3 |
| Dec 22 | 30.1 | Dec 29 | 43.9 | Jan 5 | 17.9 |
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