There may be a pair of tight races at the box office this weekend. Based on preliminary numbers at Deadline, VENOM (Tencent/Columbia/Sony) has the early lead with $9.5M on Friday, down 71% from last week’s opening day. That’s much worse than the 54% Friday-to-Friday drop for Doctor Strange and the 57% for Justice League, and suggests that a best case scenario for the weekend will be $32M, with a lower number if Sunday doesn’t live up to last week’s strong Sunday performance. Venom is pointing toward a $200M US total.
A STAR IS BORN (MGM/Warners) had very different word of mouth, down 43% from last Friday to $8.9M, which could mean a $31M weekend and a shot for the weekend title. As of now, A Star Is Born is headed toward $150M in the US, but that total has plenty of potential upside with a lengthy run.
FIRST MAN (Perfect World/Universal) is starting quietly with $5.9M on Friday (including $1.1M from Thursday night). That’s the same number as the wide opening for The Post, another serious historical story aimed at older audiences, which reached $19.4M for its opening weekend. That film, though, had the advantage of a January start in the thick of Oscar season, and First Man may settle at $16.5M or so. First Man is intended for a long awards run, so a slow start isn’t necessarily fatal, but with $150M+ in production/marketing costs, it has a long road ahead to profitability.
It would be embarrassing for First Man to fall behind GOOSEBUMPS 2: HAUNTED HALLOWEEN (Sony Animation/Columbia/Sony) for the weekend. The sequel’s Friday was lower at $4.9M (down 33% from the first day of the original Goosebumps), but a big set of weekend matinees could push the weekend to $16M, very close to First Man. Goosebumps 2 cost considerably less than the first film, but still has $125M or so in costs, and a $50M US total would make overseas appeal necessary for profit.
The arrival of Goosebumps 2 didn’t hurt SMALLFOOT (Warners Animation) too badly, down 38% on its 3rd Friday to $2.1M, with a $9M weekend ahead. It continues to be on its way to a so-so $75M in the US.
BAD TIMES AT THE EL ROYALE (20th) had an indie feel despite its big-studio release, and was left with plenty of vacant rooms on a $2.9M Friday, perhaps getting it to $8M for the weekend with limited prospects.
NIGHT SCHOOL (Perfect World/Universal) dropped 41% on its 3rd Friday to $2.1M, with a $7.5M weekend ahead, as it proceeds toward $75M in the US.
THE HOUSE WITH A CLOCK IN ITS WALLS (DreamWorks/Reliance/Universal) fell 43% on its 4th Friday to $1M, for a $4M weekend and a likely $70M US total.
THE HATE U GIVE (20th) expanded to 248 theatres before going wide next week, and may have a mild $6000 per-theatre weekend average.
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