Box office years typically start slow, with strong holds for holiday openings, and that’s proving to be the case for 2019 as well. AQUAMAN (DC/Warners) will retain its crown, as early numbers at Deadline indicate a 46% decline on its 3rd Friday to $9.1M, which should mean a $30M weekend, and a path that should lead it to $300M in the US. With its gangbusters business overseas, it’s the top-grossing film worldwide for this incarnation of the DC universe.
ESCAPE ROOM (Columbia/Sony), the lone wide opening of the weekend, won’t challenge Aquaman, but it’s off to a solid start with $7.7M on Friday (including $2.3M from Thursday, with shows starting unusually early at 4PM). A $17M weekend could well lead to profitability on a reported $9M production cost and moderate marketing expenses.
MARY POPPINS RETURNS (Disney) continues to be underwhelming, with a 51% Friday-to-Friday drop to $5.1M and a $16M weekend. It seems likely to end up at $160-170M in the US, and will unexpectedly find itself in need of major international appeal just to hit profit.
SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE (Sony Animation/Columbia/Sony) dropped 44% to $3.8M on its 4th Friday, and a $13M weekend puts it on track for $160M in the US. Although it was relatively inexpensive for the superhero genre with $200M in production/marketing costs, the profits won’t be big.
BUMBLEBEE (Paramount) was down 38% on its 4th Friday to $3.8M, on its way to a $13M weekend and $125M in the US, and so far not showing Transformers‘ giant overseas appeal. With $250M in costs, it’s not clear that this will be a profitable venture.
THE MULE (BRON/Warners) is reaching its older audience, down just 30% on its 4th Friday to $2.8M, as it heads toward a $10M weekend and a real possibility of $100M in the US, a terrific result for a moderately budgeted production. (And very possibly the highest-grossing film ever headlined by an 88-year old star.)
VICE (Annapurna) is holding well, down 36% Friday-to-Friday to $1.6M, but it wasn’t cheap to produce and has uncertain international reach, so a $6M weekend and $40M US total will leave it hoping for success at the Golden Globes and Oscars.
SECOND ACT (STX) remains modest, down 37% to $1.5M on its 3rd Friday, for a $5M weekend and likely $40M US total.
RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET (Disney) was down 38% to $1.5M on its 7th Friday, still tracking closely to Coco and on track for a $5M weekend and $200M US total.
Word of mouth has not been kind to HOLMES & WATSON (Columbia/Sony), down 60% from last Friday to $1M, and perhaps able to reach $3.5M for the weekend and $35M as a US total.
It’s worth noting that after 10 weeks in the market, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (Regency/20th) increased its theatre count and is on its way to a $2M+ weekend, seemingly with enough stamina to reach $200M in the US (on top of $523M overseas), and primed for potential surprise wins with Golden Globe and PGA nominations.
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK (Annapurna) expanded to 335 theatres for a weekend per-theatre average around $5K, not quite as strong as the $5900 The Favourite averaged at 441. DESTROYER (Annapurna) widened to 6 theatres with an OK weekend $18K average.
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