GLASS (Blinding Edge/Blumhouse/Buena Vista Intl/Universal) will easily win this MLK Weekend, but it’s not shaping up as the phenomenon it was envisioned to be–and we’ll see over the next few days whether it has a word of mouth problem. According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, it had a $16.3M Friday (including $3.7M from Thursday night), just slightly ahead of the $14.6M opening day (including $2M from the previous night) for Split, a much lower-key project that also had a less elaborate and expensive marketing campaign. Glass will benefit from the Sunday of a holiday weekend, which should bring it to $42M for the 3-day weekend (compared to $40M for Split) and $49M by Monday, and which would put it just barely as the #2 MLK opening, an eyelash ahead of Ride Along‘s $48.6M. (No one will be surprised if Universal announces a $50M 4-day estimate that comes down in finals.) Glass reportedly cost under $30M to produce before that pricey marketing, so it should have little risk of losing money, but it seems unlikely to be a bonanza.
THE UPSIDE (Lantern/STX) held well, down 40% from last Friday to $4.2M, for a $15M 3-day weekend and $18M by Monday. It could reach $75M in the US, a robust number for a project that seemed dead before it opened.
AQUAMAN (DC/Warners) will top the $300M milestone this weekend, with a Friday-to-Friday drop of 47% to $2.4M, which should give it a $10M 3-day weekend and $12M with Monday. It’s on pace for $325M in the US.
A DOG’S WAY HOME (Columbia/Sony) dropped 47% from last Friday to $1.7M for $7M by Sunday and $10M with Monday, on track for $40M in the US.
SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE (Sony Animation/Columbia/Sony) slipped 18% from last Friday to $1.8M, on its way to $7M by Sunday and $10M with Monday, and it should reach $175M in the US.
DRAGON BALL SUPER: BROLY (Funimation) has thrived in its targeted run with $10.4M on Wed-Thurs, to which it added $2.1M on Friday, for a $6M 3-day weekend and $7M with Monday, in just 500 theatres and with little in the way of marketing costs.
MARY POPPINS RETURNS (Disney) had a solid Friday, down 32% from last week to $1.2M, and should earn $5M by Sunday and $7M with Monday, as it heads to $170M in the US.
ESCAPE ROOM (Columbia/Sony) dropped 44% from last Friday to $1.5M, for a $5M 3-day weekend and $6M with Monday, and it should pass $50M in the US.
BUMBLEBEE (Tencent/Paramount) was down 36% from last Friday to $1.1M for a $4M 3-day weekend and $5M with Monday, still on track for $125M in the US.
ON THE BASIS OF SEX (Focus/Universal) had a sturdy hold, down 40% from last Friday to $1.2M, for a $4M/$5M weekend, and might reach $30M in the US.
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