>The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only). The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like an excellent $153 million for the weekend, up 27% from last year’s weekend and up 23% from the weekend’s average for the past four years. The Lorax exceeded expectations Friday and absolutely blew them away Saturday, while Project X opened very decently.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for: Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax ($227 million) and Project X ($67 million).
The second week movies: Act of Valor ($77 million, adjusted upward), Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds ($39 million, steady), Wanderlust ($22 million, steady) and Gone ($12 million, adjusted up slightly).
The third week movies: Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance ($51 million, adjusted down again slightly), This Means War ($51 million, steady) and Secret World of Arrietty ($23 million, adjusted down).
The fourth week movies: The Vow ($130 million, adjusted down a touch), Safe House ($129 million, adjusted down slightly), Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($103 million, adjusted back down) and Star Wars: Episode 1 — The Phantom Menace in 3D ($42 million, down slightly).
March 2-4 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
The Lorax (Uni) $70.7 $227
Project X (WB) $20.8 $ 67
Act of Valor (Rel) $13.7 -44% $ 77+
Safe House (Uni) $ 7.2 -34% $129
Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds (LG) $ 7.0 -55% $ 39
Journey 2 Myster. Island (WB) $ 6.9 -48% $103
The Vow (Sony) $ 6.1 -38% $130
This Means War (Fox) $ 5.6 -33% $ 51
Ghost Rider 2 (Sony) $ 4.7 -48% $ 51
The Artist (Wein) $ 3.9 +34% $ 50
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very good $153 million total Friday-Sunday, up 27% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 23% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #9
2012 $153 The Lorax $71, Project X $21
2011 $121 Rango $38, Adjustment Bureau $21, Beastly $10
2010 $186 Alice in Wonderland $116, Brooklyn’s Finest $13
2009 $102 Watchmen $55
2008 $ 91 10,000 B.C. $36, College Road Trip $14
2008-11
Avg $125
Next Weekend
Opening next weekend are John Carter from Disney, Silent House from Open Road Films and A Thousand Words from Paramount. These films will be compared to Battle: Los Angeles ($35.6 million opening weekend), Red Riding Hood ($14.0 million) and Mars Needs Moms ($6.9 million).
Check back later today for our update on international grosses.
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