March 4, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like an excellent $153 million for the weekend, up 27% from last year’s weekend and up 23% from the weekend’s average for the past four years.  The Lorax exceeded expectations Friday and absolutely blew them away Saturday, while Project X opened very decently.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for:  Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax ($227 million) and Project X ($67 million).

The second week movies:  Act of Valor ($77 million, adjusted upward), Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds ($39 million, steady), Wanderlust ($22 million, steady) and Gone ($12 million, adjusted up slightly).    

The third week movies:  Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance ($51 million, adjusted down again slightly), This Means War ($51 million, steady) and Secret World of Arrietty ($23 million, adjusted down). 

The fourth week movies:  The Vow ($130 million, adjusted down a touch), Safe House ($129 million, adjusted down slightly), Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($103 million, adjusted back down) and Star Wars: Episode 1 — The Phantom Menace in 3D ($42 million, down slightly).    

March 2-4                           Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

The Lorax                 (Uni)     $70.7             $227
Project X                  (WB)     $20.8             $ 67
Act of Valor              (Rel)     $13.7   -44%      $ 77+
Safe House                (Uni)     $ 7.2   -34%      $129
Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds   (LG)     $ 7.0   -55%      $ 39
Journey 2 Myster. Island   (WB)     $ 6.9   -48%      $103
The Vow                  (Sony)     $ 6.1   -38%      $130
This Means War            (Fox)     $ 5.6   -33%      $ 51
Ghost Rider 2            (Sony)     $ 4.7   -48%      $ 51
The Artist               (Wein)     $ 3.9   +34%      $ 50

Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very good $153 million total Friday-Sunday, up 27% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 23% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #9

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $153  The Lorax $71, Project X $21

2011  $121  Rango $38, Adjustment Bureau $21, Beastly $10
2010  $186  Alice in Wonderland $116, Brooklyn’s Finest $13
2009  $102  Watchmen $55

2008  $ 91  10,000 B.C. $36, College Road Trip $14
Avg   $125

Next Weekend            
Opening next weekend are John Carter from Disney, Silent House from Open Road Films and A Thousand Words from Paramount.  These films will be compared to Battle: Los Angeles ($35.6 million opening weekend), Red Riding Hood ($14.0 million) and Mars Needs Moms ($6.9 million).

Check back later today for our update on international grosses.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.