BEHIND THE WEEKEND BOXOFFICE – 5/19/13

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OPENINGS:  In order for STAR TREK: INTO DARKNESS (Paramount) to hit its $70.6M weekend studio estimate (and $84.1M over 4+ days), it will need to have the best Sunday hold in the top 10 by a substantial margin.  Paramount has it slipping only 24%, when the next-lowest drop is 30% (and that’s also for a Paramount movie–the lowest title from any other studio is 34%).  So we’ll see how that holds up tomorrow.  In any case, this is a disappointing opening, lower than the first 4 days of the 2009 Star Trek, even though this one had 3D/Imax ticket prices.   Overseas, Darkness made $40M in 40 territories (the global total is $164.6M so far), which is a solid but not blockbuster number.  Darkness should make more than Star Trek‘s $385.7M worldwide total… but maybe not by much, even though its production cost was $50M higher this time and the marketing spend overseas was greatly increased.  Not the sign of a thriving franchise.

HOLDOVERS:  THE GREAT GATSBY (Warners) had an OK hold in its second weekend, down 53% to $23.4M on its way to $130-140M in the US.  Overseas, where Baz Luhrmann’s pictures typically overperform, it made $42.1M in 49 territories.  It should reach over $300M worldwide–which may not make it particularly profitable, given its huge cost and marketing, but would come as a welcome relief for a movie that for months looked like a disaster waiting to happen.

IRON MAN 3 (Disney) continues to own the global boxoffice, with another $35.2M in the US ($337.1M total), where it’s getting very healthy Saturday bumps from the family audience, plus another $40.2M overseas ($736.2M).  It’s already at $1.07B, and might still have another $200M or so in the tank.

No other holdover topped $3.1M for the weekend.  THE CROODS (DreamWorks Animation/20th) continued to hold very well, with a 24% drop in its 9th weekend.  MUD (Lionsgate) added another 108 theatres (it’s now in 960) and slipped only 15%, with a $2300 per-theatre average.

LIMITED RELEASE:  FRANCES HA (IFC) had a very solid start, with a $33.5K average at 4 theatres–although that was helped by celebrity Q&As.  It widens on Friday.  THE ICEMAN (Millenium) expanded to 165 theatres, and had an OK $2800 average.  KON-TIKI (Weinstein) tripled its run to 61 theatres with a $2500 average.  STORIES WE TELL (Roadside Attractions) spread to 23 theatres with a fair $6K average.  LOVE IS ALL YOU NEED (Sony Pictures Classics) doubled to 22 theatres with a $3300 average.  WHAT MAISIE KNEW (Millenium) had a $8500 average at 4.