Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #21 of 2013 looks like a remarkable $254 million for the top 12 films, 50-75% above the comparable weekend the past few years. This will be a Memorial Day Weekend record and the best three-day weekend since December 25-27, 2009 ($259.9 million for the top 12 films in Avatar’s second weekend).
Opening at 3,658 theaters Friday, Fast & Furious 6 from Universal grossed $38.2 million Friday and $31.5 million Saturday and is on track for a $98.5 million opening weekend (well above the $83 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging $26,900 per theater for the weekend (about five times the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years), and critical sentiment is solid: 72% positive at RottenTomatoes (with top critics amazingly a touch higher at 78% positive). Fast & Furious 6 is headed for $285 million total domestic (well above the previous high for the franchise — $209.8 million domestic for 2011’s Fast Five.) For a complete track of the Fast and Furious films, see our Box Office Predictions post.
Opening at 3,555 theaters Thursday, The Hangover Part III from Warner Brothers previewed with $11.8 million Thursday and opened with $14.6 million Friday and $14.7 million Saturday and is on track for a dismal $42.4 million opening weekend (crushingly below the $69 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging $11,900 per theater for the weekend, and critical sentiment is excoriating: 21% positive at RottenTomatoes (with top critics a similarly bad 19% positive). With about $54 million Thursday-Sunday, The Hangover Part III is headed for a forgettable $143 million total domestic, an ignominious end to a franchise launched by a truly great first part in 2009 ($277.3 million domestic) and followed by a horribly bad sequel in 2011 that disappointed millions ($254.4 million domestic). A chance for redemption squandered.
Opening at 3,882 theaters Friday, Epic from 20th Century Fox opened with $9.35 million Friday and $13.4 million Saturday and is on track for a $34.2 million opening weekend (above the $29 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging $8,800 per theater for the weekend, and critical sentiment is acceptable: 63% positive at RottenTomatoes (although top critics are less receptive at 41% positive). Epic is headed for $125 million total domestic.
| Weekend 21
May 24-26, 2013 |
($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri–Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Fast & Furious 6 | Uni | [83.0] | 98.0 | 98.5 | 38.2–31.5 | 285 | |
| The Hangover Part III | WB | [69.0] | 43.5 | 42.4 | 14.6–14.7 | 143 | |
| Star Trek Into Darkness | Par | [35.4] | 38.5 | 38.0 | 10.0–14.4 | 245 | |
| Epic | Fox | [29.0] | 34.0 | 34.2 | 9.3–13.4 | 125 | |
| Iron Man 3 | Dis | [19.5] | 20.0 | 19.4 | 5.1–7.5 | 414 | |
| Great Gatsby | WB | [13.1] | 14.0 | 13.7 | 3.9–5.1 | 151 | |
| Pain and Gain | Par | [1.6] | — | .620 | n/a | 50 | |
| 42 | WB | [1.5] | 1.15 | 1.24 | .29–.50 | 98 | |
| The Croods | DW/Fox | [1.5] | 1.05 | 1.21 | .26–.50 | 178 | |
| Mud | Roadside | [1.4] | — | — | n/a | 21 | |
| Oblivion | Uni | [1.0] | — | .815 | .24–.30 | 91 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $254 million total Friday-Sunday, down just a few million dollars from yesterday’s estimate but up 52% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up an astounding 74% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND #21 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2013 | $254 | Fast & Furious 6 $98.5, Hangover Part III $42.4, Epic $34.2 | |
| 2012 | $146 | Men in Black 3 $54.6, Chernobyl Diaries $8.0, Best Exotic Hotel $6.4 | |
| 2011 | $216 | The Hangover Part II $85.9, Kung Fu Panda 2 $47.7 | |
| 2010 | $145 | Sex and the City 2 $31.0, Prince of Persia Sands of Time $30.1 | |
| 2009 | $161 | Up $68.1, Drag Me to Hell $15.8 | |
| Avg 2009-12 | $167 | ||
Check back later for the International Box Office report and Studio Scorecard.
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