The 21st weekend of the year is looking like an outstanding $258 million for the top 12 films, over 50% better than typical Memorial Day weekends because three films serving very different audiences should open well in addition to continued solid business from Star Trek Into Darkness and Iron Man 3.
Opening at over 3,600 theaters Friday (a theater count right around the top 10% of releases), Fast & Furious 6 from Universal should average $23,300 per theater for the traditional three-day weekend (for an $83 million opening Friday-Sunday and about $101 million Friday-Monday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are relatively good: 77% positive reviews (well ahead of installments 2-4 of the series and about the same as the best-reviewed Fast and Furious to date, #5). Fast & Furious 6 should be on course for $245 million domestic, clearly the best of the series and building on the strength of the last film. (See the complete Fast and Furious track below.)
Opening at around 3,450 theaters Thursday (a theater count just below the 10% of releases), The Hangover Part III from Warner Brothers should average $20,100 per theater for the traditional weekend (for a $69 million Friday-Sunday, following an estimated $18 million preview tomorrow — for $87 million Thursday-Sunday and $104 million Thursday-Monday). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are pretty bad: 33% positive reviews (matching the reaction to the absolute turd that was Part II). The Hangover Part III should be on course for $230 million domestic, continuing to the slow but steady downtrend for the series in North America.
Opening at over 3,800 theaters Friday, Epic from 20th Century Fox should average $7,600 per theater for the traditional weekend (for a modest but successful $29 million opening Friday-Sunday and $35 million Friday-Monday). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are stellar: 93% positive reviews. Epic should have great word of mouth and play well, putting it on course for $125 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND May 24-26, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Fast & Furious 6 | Uni | PG13 | 77% | 83 | 245 | |
| The Hangover Part III | WB | R | 33% | 69 | 230 | |
| Epic | Fox | PG | 93% | 29 | 125 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The Hangover track.
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Previous HANGOVER Films |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Opening Weekend | Domestic Total | Overseas Total | ||||||
| The Hangover Part II | WB | 5.26.2011 | R | 34% | 85.9 | 254.4 | 332.3 | |
| The Hangover | WB | 6.5.2009 | R | 79% | 44.9 | 277.3 | 190.2 | |
Fast & Furious track.
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Previous FAST & FURIOUS Films |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Opening Weekend | Domestic Total | Overseas Total | ||||||
| Fast Five | Uni | 4.29.2011 | PG13 | 78% | 86.2 | 209.8 | 416.3 | |
| Fast and Furious | Uni | 4.3.2009 | PG13 | 27% | 70.9 | 155.1 | 208.1 | |
| The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift | Uni | 6.16.2006 | PG13 | 35% | 23.9 | 62.5 | 95.9 | |
| 2 Fast 2 Furious | Uni | 6.6.2003 | PG13 | 36% | 50.4 | 127.1 | 109.2 | |
| The Fast and the Furious | Uni | 6.22.2001 | PG13 | 52% | 40.1 | 144.5 | 62.7 | |
Among the holdovers, Star Trek Into Darkness will be the strongest (probably #3 for the weekend overall), while Iron Man 3 and The Great Gatsby continue to do very respectable numbers.
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RETURNING FILMS May 24-26, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Star Trek Into Darkness | Par | -50% | 35.4 | 225 | |
| Iron Man 3 | Dis | -45% | 19.5 | 425 | |
| Great Gatsby | WB | -44% | 13.1 | 145 | |
| Pain and Gain | Par | -49% | 1.6 | 51 | |
| 42 | WB | -45% | 1.5 | 98 | |
| The Croods | Fox | -45% | 1.5 | 178 | |
| Mud | OpenRoad | -37% | 1.4 | 21 | |
| Oblivion | Uni | -53% | 1.0 | 92 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $167 million total, ranking 8th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $146 million (while 2011 was $216 million and 2010 was $145 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $258 million, up 54% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 76% from the same weekend last year. This would be the best weekend since Dec 25-27, 2009 ($259.9 million for the top 12 in Avatar‘s second weekend) and in the same league as May 4-6, 2012 ($249.7 million when The Avengers opened) or July 15-17, 2011 ($251.6 million when Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 opened). Unlike those weekends (when one enormous film dominated), this weekend is fueled by three films with different genres and core audiences, a perfect counter-program strategy with an adult comedy, heavy action, and family animation.
This Weekend Last Two Years
5.25.2012
Men in Black 3 SONY PG13 Will Smith Josh Brolin
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $61 Actual: $55
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $189 Actual: $179
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $445
Chernobyl Diaries WB R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $18
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $19
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel FOX NR Tom Wilkinson Judi Dench
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $5 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $42 Actual: $46
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $88
5.27.2011
The Hangover Part II WB R Bradley Cooper Ed Helms
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $81 Actual: $86
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $262 Actual: $254
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $327
Kung Fu Panda 2 PAR/ DW PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $72 Actual: $48
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $167 Actual: $165
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $500
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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