OPENINGS: THE LITTLE MERMAID (Disney) began its run with $95.5M over the 3-day weekend, projected to $117.5M with the Monday holiday. That’s within the range of pre-release projections, and if the numbers hold, it would be slightly higher than the $116.8M earned over the 2019 4-day Memorial Day weekend by Aladdin. However, it’s a bit worrisome that Little Mermaid has so far been much more frontloaded, dropping 21% on Saturday compared to Aladdin‘s 4% dip. In addition, overseas business has been soft with $68.3M in 51 markets (including $2.5M in China, where Aladdin opened at $18.6M), while Aladdin made 66% of its $1.1B worldwide total outside the US. All this may be exacerbated next weekend, when Little Mermaid faces direct competition from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Little Mermaid, with $350M+ in production/marketing costs, is still on a road to profit, but perhaps less than Disney had hoped.
Attempts to counterprogram Little Mermaid came up dry. (All of them were US-only.) THE MACHINE (Screen Gems/Sony) was the best of a bad bunch, debuting at $4.9M ($5.8M with Monday) on moderate costs. Sony has been quick to note that it has limited risk on the title since it’s serving as a distributor for hire.
ABOUT MY FATHER (Lionsgate) was lower at $4.3M/$5.3M, and will hope for a life on home media.
Gerard Butler’s latest action effort KANDAHAR (Open Road) fell flat with $2.4M/$3M, far below the $10.3M opening for January’s Plane.
YOU HURT MY FEELINGS (A24) became the latest adult-oriented indie to face difficulty turning stellar reviews (95% on Rotten Tomatoes) into box office, with $1.4M/$1.8M at 912 theaters, a 3-day per-theater average lower than The Machine and About My Father‘s.
HOLDOVERS: FAST X (Universal) fell 66% over the 3-day weekend to $23M, with $28.6M estimated including the holiday. That’s consistent with the pattern of 2021’s Fast 9, which dropped 66% to $23M over the initial 3 days of July 4th weekend, with $29.1M including Monday. Fast X is headed for $165M in the US (compared to $173M for Fast 9), with the heavy lifting coming abroad, as is normal for the franchise. It currently has $399.3M overseas after a $87.3M weekend in 84 territories, and may surpass Fast 9‘s $553.2M.
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 (Marvel/Disney) rebounded somewhat in its 4th weekend, down 38% over the 3-day weekend to $20M, with $26.6M estimated including Monday. A $365M total would be down about 5% from Vol 2. Overseas, Vol 3 has $431.6M after a $25.1M weekend in 52 markets, and may marginally top Vol 3‘s $473.9M international total.
THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE (Illumination/Universal, also on VOD) dipped 35% to $6.3M in its 8th weekend, and should end its remarkable run at $580M in the US. The overseas total is $718M after a $13.1M weekend in 81 territories.
EVIL DEAD RISE (Warners, also on VOD) lost 57% to $1.1M ($1.3M with Monday) in its 6th weekend, on its way to $70M in the US. It also has $76.2M overseas.
LIMITED RELEASE: SANCTUARY (Neon) expanded to 10 theaters with a $4100 3-day per-theater average. THE STARLING GIRL (Bleecker Street) widened to 114 and averaged $300. MOON GARDEN (Oscilloscope) averaged $1400 at 6.
NEXT WEEKEND: As noted, the big-ticket arrival is SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE (Marvel/Sony). THE BOOGEYMAN (20th/Disney) will counterprogram from the horror end. Limited releases include PAST LIVES (A24).
About the Author
