Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #27 of 2013 looks like a terrific $223 million for the top 12 films, up sharply from the comparable weekend in recent years. Not even The Lone Ranger could derail a hot summer box office, which is up 30% or more in three of the last four weekends.
Opening at 3,997 theaters Wednesday, Despicable Me 2 from Universal grossed $30.2 million on Friday and is on track for an $80.5 million opening weekend (somewhat above the $78 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $20,100 per theater for the weekend (almost four times above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). With $34.3 million Wednesday and $24.5 million Thursday, Despicable Me 2 is headed toward a five-day $140 million total. Critical sentiment is positive: 75% positive overall at RottenTomatoes (with top critics an even more enthusiastic 82% positive). Despicable Me 2 is headed for $285 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,904 theaters Wednesday, The Lone Ranger from Disney grossed $10.7 million on Friday and is on track for a soft $30.5 million opening weekend (a touch below the $32 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging only $7,800 per theater for the weekend. With a puny $9.6 million Wednesday and $9.9 million Thursday, The Lone Ranger should total a woeful $50 million its first five days. Critical sentiment is really weak: 24% positive at RottenTomatoes with all critics (with top critics hostile at 11% positive). The Lone Ranger is headed for maybe $95 million total domestic.
Opening at 876 theaters Wednesday, Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain from Summit grossed $3.7 million on Friday and is on track for a solid $10.0 million opening weekend (well above the $7.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging $11,400 per theater for the weekend. With $4.8 million Wednesday and $2.6 million Thursday, Kevin Hart should total $17 Wednesday-Sunday. Critics are an encouraging 70% positive (with a limited number of reviews). Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain is headed for $35 million total domestic.
| Weekend 27: July 5-7, 2013 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Despicable Me 2 | Uni | [78.0] | 80.5 | 30.2 | 285 | |
| The Lone Ranger | Dis | [32.0] | 30.5 | 10.7 | 95 | |
| The Heat | Fox | [22.3] | 24.5 | 8.6 | 152 | |
| Monsters University | Dis | [23.8] | 20.0 | 7.1 | 295 | |
| World War Z | Par | [15.5] | 18.5 | 6.3 | 211 | |
| White House Down | Sony | [12.5] | 13.5 | 4.6 | 84 | |
| Man of Steel | WB | [11.6] | 11.7 | 3.9 | 302 | |
| Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain | Summit | [7.5] | 10.0 | 3.7 | 35 | |
| This Is the End | Sony | [5.6] | 5.5 | n/a | 104 | |
| Now You See Me | Summit | [3.8] | 2.9 | n/a | 123 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $223 million total Friday-Sunday, up 38% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 23% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND #27 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2013 | $223 | Despicable Me 2 $80.5, The Lone Ranger $30.5, Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain $10 | |
| 2012 | $182 | Amazing Spider-Man $62.0, Savages $16.0, Katy Perry: Part of Me $7.1 | |
| 2011 | $146 | Horrible Bosses $28.3, Zookeeper $20.1 | |
| 2010 | $184 | Despicable Me $56.4, Predators $24.8 | |
| 2009 | $135 | Bruno $30.6, I Love You Beth Cooper $4.9 | |
| Avg 2009-12 | $162 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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