July 5, 2013

Friday Box Office Report PREVIEW

The complete Friday Box Office report will be posted at its usual time Saturday morning, but in the meantime we have one big over-performer in Despicable Me 2, one opener slightly above forecast (Kevin Hart) and one flat-out, embarrassing bomb (Lone Ranger), doing even worse than our bearish expectations.

With $34.3 million Wednesday and $24.5 million Thursday, Despicable Me 2 stands at $58.8 million for the first two days.  Earlier in the week we forecast a Wednesday-Thursday total of $46 million ($124 million Wednesday-Sunday and $78 million for the traditional Friday-Sunday portion of the weekend).  We’ll have a better view of the weekend tomorrow morning, but it looks like Despicable Me 2 could be more like $85 million Friday-Sunday and $144 million Wednesday-Sunday.

The Lone Ranger has grossed $19.5 million the first two days ($9.6 million Wednesday and $9.9 million Thursday), compared to the $24 million we forecast for Wednesday-Thursday ($56 million Wednesday-Sunday forecast and $32 million Friday-Sunday).  The Lone Ranger could be more like $49 million the first five days (perhaps $29 million Friday-Sunday), making this the Schadenfreude event of the summer — until Pacific Rim comes along next week.

Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain has grossed $7.4 million so far ($4.8 million Wednesday and $2.6 million Thursday), well ahead of the forecast $4.5 million.  We’ll adjust Kevin Hart up somewhat to $16 million Wednesday-Sunday ($8.5 million Friday-Sunday).

Complete details tomorrow.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.