The 31st weekend of the year is looking like $141 million for the top 12 films, not bad for the first weekend of August.
Opening at around 2,800 theaters Friday (near the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), 2 Guns from Universal should average $12,200 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $34 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] The early reviews at RottenTomatoes are mediocre to weak: 43% positive so far. 2 Guns should be on track for $95 million domestic.
Opening at 3,866 theaters today, The Smurfs 2 from Sony should average $7,200 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $27.5 million opening Friday-Sunday). Combined with an estimated $15 million today and Thursday, the sequel should total $43 million through Sunday. The film is scoring a very poor 15% positive score at RottenTomatoes. The Smurfs 2 should be on course for maybe $115 million domestic, well below the $142.6 million domestic total for The Smurfs (released July 29, 2011). But the original in 2011 reaped $421.1 million overseas, and the rest of the world could be fooled into forking over $475 million or more this time (more than making up for the domestic decline).
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND August 2-4, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| 2 Guns | Uni | PG | 43% | 34.0 | 95 | |
| Smurfs 2 | Sony | R | 15% | 27.5 | 115 | |
Despite a rough 56% second-weekend drop, The Wolverine will be the top holdover. But The Wolverine will fade out rapidly in weekends three and four.
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RETURNING FILMS August 2-4, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| The Wolverine | Fox | -56% | 23.5 | 125 | |
| The Conjuring | WB | -43% | 12.8 | 140 | |
| Despicable Me 2 | Uni | -43% | 9.4 | 363 | |
| Turbo | Fox/DWA | -46% | 7.4 | 95 | |
| Grown Ups 2 | Sony | -48% | 6.0 | 132 | |
| Red 2 | LG/Summit | -48% | 4.9 | 57 | |
| The Heat | Fox | -37% | 4.4 | 164 | |
| Pacific Rim | WB | -52% | 3.7 | 107 | |
| Fruitvale Station | Weinstein | -30% | 3.2 | 22 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $132 million total, ranking 25th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $114 million (while 2011 was $158 million and 2010 was $123 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a decent $141 million, up 7% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend up 23% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
8.3.2012
Total Recall SONY PG13 Colin Farrell Kate Beckinsale
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $28 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $60 Actual: $59
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $140
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days FOX PG Zachary Gordon Devon Bostick
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $15
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $49
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $28
8.5.2011
Rise of the Planet of the Apes FOX PG13 James Franco Freida Pinto
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $43 Actual: $55
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $180 Actual: $177
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $305
The Change-Up UNI R Jason Bateman Ryan Reynolds
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $20 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $38
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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