FRIDAY AUGUST 16 Box Office Report: The Butler Triumphs on an Otherwise Undistinguised Weekend

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Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #33 of 2013 looks like an okay $120 million for the top 12 films, up 6% from the average for this weekend the past few years but down 6% from last year’s comparable weekend. 

Opening at 2,933 theaters Friday, Lee Daniels’ The Butler from Weinstein grossed $8.3 million Friday and is on track for a $26.1 million opening weekend (comfortably above the $20.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $8,900 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is relatively strong and much better than the competition this weekend (73% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and an even more respectable 79% with top critics). Lee Daniels’ The Butler is headed for $93 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,940 theaters Friday, Kick-Ass 2 from Universal grossed $5.8 million Friday and is headed for a $15.7 million opening weekend (far below our $24.5 million forecast). The sequel is pacing toward an absolutely mediocre three-day average of $5,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is soft: 28% positive overall and a really weak 16% positive with top critics. Kick-Ass 2 is headed for $39 million total domestic, behind the $48.1 million domestic final for Kick-Ass (released April 16, 2010 by Lionsgate).

Opening at 2,381 theaters Friday, Jobs from Open Road Films grossed $2.6 million Friday and is on track for a $7.6 million opening weekend (below our $10.0 million forecast). The Steve Jobs biopic is pacing toward a bad three-day average of $3,200 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is weak: 24% positive overall and an even worse 18% positive with top critics. Jobs is headed for $17 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,459 theaters Friday, Paranoia from Relativity grossed $1.3 million Friday and is pacing toward a $3.5 million opening weekend (well under our $9.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a horrible three-day average of $1,400 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is revolting: 2% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and an ignominious 0% positive with the few top critics who bothered to review it. Paranoia is headed for $5 million total domestic.

We’re the Millers has been adjusted up to $117 million domestic total, while Elysium is holding steady at $83 million.  Planes has been adjusted down to $67 million total, and Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters has been adjusted up slightly to $58 million.

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.