Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #33 of 2013 looks like an okay $121 million for the top 12 films, up 6% from the average for this weekend the past few years but down 5% from last year’s comparable weekend.
Opening at 2,933 theaters Friday, Lee Daniels’ The Butler from Weinstein grossed $8.3 million Friday and $9.3 million Saturday, now on track for a $25.0 million opening weekend (comfortably above the $20.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $8,500 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is relatively strong and much better than the competition this weekend (73% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and an even more respectable 79% with top critics). Lee Daniels’ The Butler is headed for $89 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,940 theaters Friday, Kick-Ass 2 from Universal grossed $5.8 million Friday and a really bad $4.2 million Saturday, now headed for a $13.6 million opening weekend (far below our $24.5 million forecast). The sequel is pacing toward a slightly below norm three-day average of $4,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is soft: 28% positive overall and a really weak 16% positive with top critics. Kick-Ass 2 is headed for $34 million total domestic, behind the $48.1 million domestic final for Kick-Ass (released April 16, 2010 by Lionsgate).
Opening at 2,381 theaters Friday, Jobs from Open Road Films grossed $2.6 million Friday and a weak $2.3 million Saturday, now on track for a $6.7 million opening weekend (below our $10.0 million forecast). The Steve Jobs biopic is pacing toward a bad three-day average of $2,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is weak: 24% positive overall and an even worse 18% positive with top critics. Jobs is headed for $15 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,459 theaters Friday, Paranoia from Relativity grossed $1.3 million Friday and Saturday, still pacing toward a $3.5 million opening weekend (well under our $9.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a horrible three-day average of $1,400 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is revolting: 2% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and an ignominious 0% positive with the few top critics who bothered to review it. Paranoia is headed for $5 million total domestic.
We’re the Millers has been adjusted up to $117 million domestic total, while Elysium is now aiming toward $87 million. Planes has been adjusted to $76 million total, and Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters has been adjusted up slightly to $60 million.
| Weekend 33: August 16-18, 2013 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri–Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Lee Daniels’ The Butler | Weins | [20.5] | 26.1 | 25.0 | 8.3–9.3 | 89 | |
| We’re the Millers | WB | [16.2] | 17.6 | 17.8 | 5.4–7.2 | 117+ | |
| Kick-Ass 2 | Uni | [24.5] | 15.7 | 13.6 | 5.8–4.2 | 34 | |
| Elysium | Sony | [14.1] | 12.6 | 13.6 | 3.9–5.5 | 87 | |
| Planes | Dis | [13.3] | 11.6 | 13.1 | 3.6–5.6 | 76- | |
| Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters | Fox | [7.6] | 7.9 | 8.4 | 2.5–3.5 | 60+ | |
| Jobs | Open | [10.0] | 7.6 | 6.7 | 2.6–2.3 | 15 | |
| 2 Guns | Uni | [5.6] | 5.4 | 5.6 | 1.7–2.4 | 73 | |
| The Smurfs 2 | Sony | [5.9] | 4.2 | 4.6 | 1.4–2.0 | 65 | |
| The Wolverine | Fox | [—] | 4.2 | 4.4 | 1.3–1.9 | 134 | |
| Paranoia | Rel | [9.5] | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.3–1.3 | 5 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $121 million total Friday-Sunday, up 6% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but down 5% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 33 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2013 | $121 | Lee Daniels’ The Butler $25.0, Kick-Ass 2 $13.6, Jobs $6.7, Paranoia $3.5 | |
| 2012 | $127 | The Expendables 2 $28.6, ParaNorman $14.1, Sparkle $11.6, Odd Life of Timothy Green $10.8 | |
| 2011 | $106 | Spy Kids: All the Time in the World $11.6, Conan the Barbarian $10.0, Fright Night $7.7 | |
| 2010 | $110 | Vampires Suck $12.2, Lottery Ticket $10.7, Piranha 3D $10.1, The Switch $8.4 | |
| 2009 | $112 | Inglorious Basterds $38.1, Shorts $6.4, Post Grad $2.7 | |
| Avg 2009-12 | $114 | ||
Check back later for the Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.
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