Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #3 of 2014 looks like $156 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up 33% to 43% from the comparable weekends the past few years.
Opening at 2,663 theaters Friday, Ride Along from Universal grossed $14.5 million Friday, putting the buddy comedy on track for a $39.5 million opening three-day weekend (way above our $26.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $14,800 per theater for the weekend (almost three times above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is dismissive (17% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 23% positive with top critics). Ride Along is headed for $118 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,427 theaters Friday, The Nut Job from Open Road Films grossed $4.8 million Friday and is on pace for a big weekend multiple from family business and an $18.8 million opening three-day weekend (well above our very bearish $11.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a perfectly middle-of-the-road three-day average of $5,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is dismissive (only 13% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 14% positive with top critics). The Nut Job is headed for $72 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,387 theaters Friday, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit from Paramount grossed $5.4 million Friday and is on track for a $16.3 million opening three-day weekend (slightly below our $18.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $4,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is middling (62% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and a really mediocre 52% positive with top critics). Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit is on track for $51 million total domestic.
| Weekend 3: January 17-19, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Ride Along | Uni | [26.5] | 39.5 | 14.5 | 118 | |
| Lone Survivor | Uni | [21.8] | 23.0 | 6.7 | 135 | |
| The Nut Job | Open R | [11.5] | 18.8 | 4.8 | 72 | |
| Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit | Par | [18.5] | 16.3 | 5.4 | 51 | |
| Frozen 3D | Dis | [11.3] | 12.5 | 2.5 | 370 | |
| American Hustle | Sony | [6.5] | 10.3 | 2.9 | 146 | |
| Devil’s Due | Fox | [7.5] | 8.5 | 3.5 | 15 | |
| August: Osage County | Weins | [7.3] | 7.7 | 2.1 | 41 | |
| The Wolf of Wall Street | Par | [6.3] | 7.4 | 2.0 | 109 | |
| Saving Mr. Banks | Dis | [4.7] | 4.1 | 1.1 | 89 | |
| The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug | WB | [4.6] | 3.8 | .89 | 259 | |
| Legend of Hercules | LG/Sum | [3.8] | 3.2 | .88 | 16 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Opening at 2,544 theaters Friday, Devil’s Due from Fox grossed $3.5 million Friday and is on track for an $8.5 million opening three-day weekend (slightly above our $7.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward an awful three-day average of $3,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is weak (21% positive overall at RottenTomatoes). Devil’s Due is headed for a quick exit from theaters and $15 million total domestic.
Lone Survivor is the top holdover with a solid $23.0 million second weekend and an upgraded domestic total of $135 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very good $156 million total Friday-Sunday, up 43% from the four-year average for the same weekend and up 33% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 3 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $156 | Ride Along $39.5, Nut Job $18.8, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit $16.3, Devil’s Due $8.5 | |
| 2013 | $117 | Mama $28.4, Broken City $8.3, The Last Stand $6.3 | |
| 2012 | $110 | Underworld Awakening $25.3, Red Tails $18.8, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close $10.0 | |
| 2011 | $89 | No Strings Attached $19.7 | |
| 2010 | $128 | Legion $17.5, The Tooth Fairy $14.0, Extraordinary Measures $6.0 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $109 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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