August 18, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The 33rd weekend of 2012 is looking like $129 million for the Top 12 films Friday-Sunday, not as strong as we forecast Wednesday (because Expendables 2 is not as big as we forecast) but still up well over 20% from comparable weekends the past several years.            

The Expendables 2 from Lionsgate opened with $10.5 million Friday and is on pace for a $28.5 million opening weekend, well below the $37.5 million ShowbuzzDaily Forecast posted Wednesday but still easily the #1 film of the weekend.  The sequel is now headed for a final domestic gross of $85 million.  For comparison, The Expendables opened August 13, 2010 with a $34.8 million opening weekend on its way to $103.1 million domestic and $171.4 million overseas.

ParaNorman from Focus/ Universal opened with $4.56 million Friday and is on track for a $13.3 million opening weekend — almost exactly the $13.2 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.  ParaNorman is on pace for a domestic final of about $46 million.

Sparkle from TriStar grossed $4.55 million Friday and should hit $13.0 million Friday-Sunday, exactly hitting our ShowbuzzDaily forecast issues Wednesday.  The Whitney Houston-Jordin Sparks project should leave theaters relatively quickly with a domestic gross of $28 million.

The Odd Life of Timothy Green found $3.4 million Friday and should hit $10.8 million Friday-Sunday and total about $15 million Wednesday-Sunday (about $1 million more than we forecast).  The film should leave theaters with about $37 million domestic.

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.

Weekend 33: August 17-19, 2012 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Expendables 2 LG [37.5] 28.5 10.5 85
Bourne Legacy Uni [18.3] 17.0 5.3 110
ParaNorman Focus [13.2] 13.3 4.6 46
Sparkle TriStar [13.0] 13.0 4.6 28
The Campaign WB [14.1] 12.8 4.2 84
Dark Knight Rises WB [11.6] 11.0 3.1 442
Odd Life of Timothy Green Disney [9.8] 10.8 3.4 37
Hope Springs Sony [9.5] 9.3 2.7 62
Total Recall Sony [3.7] 3.5 1.0 56
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days Fox [4.7] 3.4 1.1 50
Ice Age: Continental Drift Fox [4.3] 2.8 0.8 159

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $129 million total Friday-Sunday, not as much as we forecast Wednesday but still up 22% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 24% from the average for this weekend the past four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #33 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $129 Expendables 2 $29, ParaNorman $13, Sparkle $13
2011 $106 Spy Kids All Time World $12, Conan the Barbarian $10, Fright Night $8
2010 $110 Vampires Suck $12, Lottery Ticket $11, Piranha 3D $10
2009 $112 Inglorious Basterds $38, Shorts $6
2008 $89 House Bunny $14, Death Race $13, The Longshots $4
Avg 2008-11 $104

Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses, as well as updated international figures later in the day Sunday.  On Monday, we will update the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft, as well.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.