Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #7 of 2014 now looks like $160 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, much lower than yesterday’s estimate ($171 million) but still 22% ahead of this weekend’s average the past several years. Saturday was not kind to three of the four new movies (except RoboCop). We know moviegoers weren’t staying home to watch Saturday’s Olympic telecast, but they weren’t flooding the theaters.
Opening at 2,253 theaters Friday, About Last Night from Sony/Screen Gems grossed $13.0 million Friday and a cool $8.0 million Saturday, now putting the film on track for a $27.0 million opening weekend (now pretty close to our $25.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a still very good three-day average of $11,900 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is quite supportive (75% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 81% positive with top critics). About Last Night is headed for around $102 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,372 theaters Wednesday, RoboCop from Sony grossed $6.9 million Friday and a solid $8.4 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a $21.5 million traditional three-day opening weekend (closer to but still significantly below our $29.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a now slightly above average three-day average of $6,400 per theater for the weekend. With the slow start from the early release on Wednesday and Thursday, RoboCop will total around $26 million through Sunday. Critical sentiment is middling (50% positive overall and 55% positive with top critics). RoboCop is now headed for $64 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,893 theaters Friday, Endless Love from Universal grossed $7.4 million Friday and a lovelorn $3.5 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a $13.4 million opening weekend (now well below our $17.0 million forecast). The film is headed for a sub-par three-day average of $4,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is very weak (14% positive overall and 12% positive with top critics). Endless Love is headed for maybe $30 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,965 theaters Friday, Winter’s Tale from Warner Brothers grossed a small $3.7 million Friday and a tiny $2.2 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a meager $7.8 million opening weekend (well below our $14.0 million forecast). The film is headed for a very weak three-day average of $2,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is also very weak (12% positive overall and 12% positive with top critics). Winter’s Tale is headed for a quick exit from theaters and maybe $15 million total domestic.
| Weekend 7: February 14-16, 2014 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri-Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| The Lego Movie | WB | [55.8] | 49.1 | 48.8 | 12.9-20.5 | 270 | |
| About Last Night | Sony | [25.0] | 31.5 | 27.0 | 13.0-8.0 | 102 | |
| RoboCop | Sony | [29.5] | 18.6 | 21.5 | 6.9-8.4 | 64 | |
| The Monuments Men | Sony | [15.3] | 15.6 | 15.0 | 4.9-5.9 | 81 | |
| Endless Love | Uni | [17.0] | 17.9 | 13.4 | 7.4-3.5 | 30 | |
| Ride Along | Uni | [6.5] | 9.2 | 8.8 | 3.4-3.1 | 134 | |
| Winter’s Tale | WB | [14.0] | 8.9 | 7.8 | 3.7-2.2 | 15 | |
| Frozen 3D | Dis | [6.9] | 6.7 | 5.9 | 1.7-2.4 | 385 | |
| Lone Survivor |
Dis | [4.2] | 4.3 | 4.1 | 1.2-1.6 | 130 | |
| That Awkward Moment | Foc | [4.1] | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.5-1.1 | 26 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $160 million total Friday-Sunday, more than $10 million lower than yesterday’s estimate but still up 22% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 27% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 7 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $160 | About Last Night $27.0, RoboCop $21.5, Endless Love $13.4, Winter’s Tale $7.8 | |
| 2013 | $126 | A Good Day to Die Hard $24.8, Safe Haven $21.4, Escape from Planet Earth $15.9 | |
| 2012 | $143 | Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance $22.1, This Means War $17.4, Secret World Arrietty $6.4 | |
| 2011 | $130 | Unknown $21.9, I Am Number Four $19.4, Big Mommas: Like Father Like Son $16.3 | |
| 2010 | $122 | Shutter Island $41.1 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $132 | ||
Check back tomorrow later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
About the Author
