Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #13 of 2014 now looks like $133 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up from yesterday’s estimate ($126 million) and now down only 5% from the average for this weekend the past several years.
Opening at 3,567 theaters Friday, Noah from Paramount grossed $15.2 million through Friday and $17.6 million Saturday, now putting the film on track for a $44.0 million opening weekend (above our $38.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $12,300 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is solid (76% positive overall and 78% positive with top critics). Noah is now headed for $132 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,486 theaters Friday, Sabotage from Open Road Films grossed $1.8 million Friday and $2.1 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a $5.3 million opening weekend (below our $7.8 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a perfectly awful $2,100 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is very weak (22% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 18% positive with top critics). Sabotage is headed for around $10 million total domestic.
Cesar Chavez from Lionsgate/Summit opened with $1.0 million Friday and Saturday, headed for a $3.0 million opening weekend (below our $5.2 million forecast). The bio-pic is averaging $4,500 per theater for the weekend at 664 theaters. Cesar Chavez is on pace for about $9 million total domestic.
Expanding to 977 theaters this weekend, Grand Budapest Hotel is on pace for an $8.8 million weekend (very close to our $8.7 million forecast and a very good $9,000 per theater average for the weekend). Revised domestic total: $56 million.
Also expanding this weekend, Bad Words is having the opposite reception in the marketplace: a $3,100 weekend average at 842 theaters for only $2.7 million this weekend (well below our relatively rosy $4.3 million forecast).
| Weekend 13: March 28-30, 2014 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri–Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Noah | Par | [38.5] | 40.4 | 44.0 | 15.2–17.6 | 132 | |
| Divergent | LG/Sum | [23.0] | 26.5 | 26.5 | 8.1–11.5 | 158 | |
| Muppets Most Wanted | Dis | [10.3] | 10.0 | 11.4 | 2.6–5.3 | 65 | |
| Mr Peabody & Sherman | Fox/DWA | [7.9] | 9.5 | 9.5 | 2.2–4.3 | 120 | |
| God’s Not Dead | Free | [6.2] | 8.1 | 9.1 | 2.3–3.6 | 45 | |
| Grand Budapest Hotel | FoxS | [8.7] | 8.4 | 8.8 | 2.4–3.9 | 56 | |
| Sabotage | OpenR | [7.8] | 5.3 | 5.3 | 1.8–2.1 | 10 | |
| Need for Speed | Uni | [—] | 4.2 | 4.3 | 1.2–1.9 | 45 | |
| 300: Rise of an Empire | WB | [3.9] | 4.1 | 4.3 | 1.2–1.9 | 112 | |
| Non-Stop | Uni | [—] | 3.9 | 4.1 | 1.2–1.9 | 96 | |
| LEGO Movie | WB | [—] | 2.9 | 3.1 | .70–1.4 | 255 | |
| Cesar Chavez | LG/Sum | [5.2] | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.0–.98 | 9 | |
| Bad Words | Uni/Foc | [4.3] | 2.7 | 2.6 | .77–1.2 | 12 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $133 million total Friday-Sunday, down 5% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 4% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 13 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $133 | Noah $44.0, Grand Budapest Hotel (wide) $8.8, Sabotage $5.3, Cesar Chavez $3.0 | |
| 2013 | $140 | G.I. Joe: Retaliation $40.5, TP’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor $21.6, The Host $10.6 | |
| 2012 | $140 | Wrath of the Titans $33.5, Mirror Mirror $18.1 | |
| 2011 | $114 | Hop $37.5, Source Code $14.8, Insidious $13.3 | |
| 2010 | $169 | Clash of the Titans $61.2, TP’s Why Did I Get Married Too $29.3, The Last Song $16.0 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $141 | ||
Check back later today for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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