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March 10, 2013
 

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES March 8-10

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #10 of 2013 is looking even stronger than it did yesterday: now $129 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up from the $122 million estimate yesterday and now up 5% from last year.  Oz the Great and Powerful is now looking like an $80 million opening weekend (now ahead of the ShowbuzzDaily forecast) and now headed for over a $200 million domestic final thanks to a solid Saturday.        

Weekend 10: March 8-10, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Oz the Great and Powerful Dis [75.0] 71.9 80.3 24.1–33.0 208
Jack the Giant Slayer WB [13.3] 10.3 10.0 2.5–4.5 65
Identity Thief Uni [5.9] 6.2 6.3 1.8–3.0 134
Snitch Summit [4.5] 5.1 5.1 1.4–2.3 43
Dead Man Down FilmDis [5.5] 5.1 5.3 1.8–2.2 11
21 and Over Rel [4.5] 4.9 5.1 1.6–2.1 27
Safe Haven Rel [3.5] 3.9 3.8 1.2–1.7 70
Silver Linings Playbook Weins [4.4] 3.8 3.7 1.0–1.7 125
Escape from Planet Earth Weins [3.8] 3.6 3.2 0.7–1.5 56
The Last Exorcism Part II CBS [2.8] 2.9 3.1 1.1–1.5 12

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

 

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.

 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $129 million total Friday-Sunday, up 12% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and up 5%  from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #10 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $129 Oz the Great and Powerful $80, Dead Man Down $5
2012 $121 John Carter $30, Silent House $7, A Thousand Words $6
2011 $118 Battle: Los Angeles $36, Red Riding Hood $14, Mars Needs Moms $7
2010 $136 Green Zone $14, She’s Out of My League $10, Remember Me $8
2009 $88 Race to Witch Mountain $24, Last House on the Left $14, Miss March $2
Avg 2009-12 $116

Check back later for the International Box Office report.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.