Men in Black 3 dropped a standard 50% from its first three-days last week (headed for $27.5 million this weekend, a shade below our forecast). However, based on solid mid-week business (and of course an inflated Monday because of Memorial Day), we have upgraded its Domestic Final estimate to $179 million. Marvel’s The Avengers is on track to gross $19 million in its fifth weekend, also a touch below our forecast (but still an incredible number for weekend #5). However, everything else is headed for weekends well below $5 million, somewhat softer in most cases than forecast.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions
| Weekend 22: June 1-3, 2012 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Snow White and the Huntsman | Uni | [40.8] | 55.9 | 20.3 | 160 | |
| Men in Black 3 | Sony | [28.5] | 27.5 | 8.2 | 179 | |
| The Avengers | Dis | [22.0] | 19.2 | 5.6 | 625 | |
| Battleship | Uni | [5.0] | 4.4 | 1.4 | 67 | |
| What to Expect When You’re Expecting | LG | [4.8] | 4.3 | 1.5 | 42 | |
| Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | LG | [4.5] | 4.3 | 1.3 | 39 | |
| The Dictator | Par | [4.1] | 4.2 | 1.4 | 65 | |
| Dark Shadows | WB | [3.9] | 3.4 | 1.1 | 79 | |
| Chernobyl Diaries | WB | [3.1] | 3.0 | 1.0 | 15 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $130 million total Friday-Sunday, down 15% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 14% from the average for this weekend the past four years. Snow White and the Hunstman‘s opening is in the same league as other top films from this weekend the past few years (X-Men: First Class last year and Kung Fu Panda in 2008), but the big difference is that Memorial Day films return for much stronger second weekends in most years, providing a much broader box office base.
| ($ millions) | |||
| WEEKEND #22 | Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend | |
| 2012 | $130 | Snow White and the Huntsman $56 | |
| 2011 | $154 | X-Men: First Class $55 | |
| 2010 | $122 | Get Him to Greek $17, Killers $16, Marmaduke $11 | |
| 2009 | $161 | The Hangover $45, Land of the Lost $19 | |
| 2008 | $171 | Kung Fu Panda $60, You Don’t Mess with the Zohan $38 | |
| Avg 2008-11 | $152 | ||
Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses, as well as updated international figures later in the day Sunday. On Monday, we will update the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft, as well.
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