June 2, 2012

FRIDAY JUNE 1 BOX OFFICE RESULTS: Snow White Surprises But Total Business Still Sags

The 22nd weekend of 2012 is looking like a soft $130 million for the Top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down 15% from this weekend last year.  Snow White and the Huntsman is opening much stronger than forecast (and the weekend overall is consequently not quite the disaster we expected), but this is still the third weekend in row down double-digits from both last year and a four-year average for comparable weekends.  
Snow White and the Huntsman from Universal opened with $20.3 million Friday and is headed for an estimated $55.9 million opening weekend, blowing past the $40.8 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The film should average a very solid $14,800 for the weekend at 3,773  theaters.  Snow White and the Huntsman is headed for a preliminary $160 million in North America.  Critical reviews have drifted down to 46% positive at RottenTomatoes, although Mitch Salem gave a “worth a ticket” endorsement to the film.  Look for a complete international revenue update for this and all other films in wide release late Sunday.

Men in Black 3 dropped a standard 50% from its first three-days last week (headed for $27.5 million this weekend, a shade below our forecast).  However, based on solid mid-week business (and of course an inflated Monday because of Memorial Day), we have upgraded its Domestic Final estimate to $179 million.  Marvel’s The Avengers is on track to gross $19 million in its fifth weekend, also a touch below our forecast (but still an incredible number for weekend #5).  However, everything else is headed for weekends well below $5 million, somewhat softer in most cases than forecast.          

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions

Weekend 22: June 1-3, 2012 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni [40.8] 55.9 20.3 160
Men in Black 3 Sony [28.5] 27.5 8.2 179
The Avengers Dis [22.0] 19.2 5.6 625
Battleship Uni [5.0] 4.4 1.4 67
What to Expect When You’re Expecting LG [4.8] 4.3 1.5 42
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel LG [4.5] 4.3 1.3 39
The Dictator Par [4.1] 4.2 1.4 65
Dark Shadows WB [3.9] 3.4 1.1 79
Chernobyl Diaries WB [3.1] 3.0 1.0 15

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.  

Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $130 million total Friday-Sunday, down 15% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 14% from the average for this weekend the past four years.  Snow White and the Hunstman‘s opening is in the same league as other top films from this weekend the past few years (X-Men: First Class last year and Kung Fu Panda in 2008), but the big difference is that Memorial Day films return for much stronger second weekends in most years, providing a much broader box office base.  

($ millions)
WEEKEND #22 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $130 Snow White and the Huntsman $56
2011 $154 X-Men: First Class $55
2010 $122 Get Him to Greek $17, Killers $16, Marmaduke $11
2009 $161 The Hangover $45, Land of the Lost $19
2008 $171 Kung Fu Panda $60, You Don’t Mess with the Zohan $38
Avg 2008-11 $152


Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses, as well as updated international figures later in the day Sunday.  On Monday, we will update the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft, as well.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.