May 30, 2012


More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Metcalf
Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Weekend #22 of 2012 looks like it will total about $122 million for the top 12 films, down 21% from last year’s comparable weekend and down 20% from the four-year average for the weekend.  That would make it three down weekends (way down) in a row.  

Opening at an estimated 3,700 theaters, Snow White and the Huntsman from Universal should average $11,000 per theater (for just over $40 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  The reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a just past lukewarm 59% positive.  Snow White and the Huntsman currently stands at a preliminary $120 million domestic estimate.   

June 1-3, 2012 Critics Positive Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni PG13 59% 40.8 120

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Among the holdovers, Men in Black 3 should decline a very average 48% this weekend to $28.5 million from Friday-Sunday, while Marvel’s The Avengers should fall 40% to $22 million and third place.  Everything else is basically at life support levels.  And that’s the problem — there is no depth to the box office beyond a couple of films.   

RETURNING FILMS ($ millions)
June 1-3, 2012 Change vs Last Weekend Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Men in Black 3 Sony -48% 28.5 154
The Avengers Dis -40% 22.0 611
Battleship Uni -55% 5.0 68
The Dictator Par -48% 4.8 66
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel LG -30% 4.5 39
What to Expect When You’re Expecting LG -43% 4.1 38
Dark Shadows WB -48% 3.9 79
Chernobyl Diaries WB -62% 3.1 14

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $152 million total, ranking 13th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend’s total was $154 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a weak $122 million, down 21% from this weekend last year and down 20% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years.  This will be the third significantly down weekend in a row as nothing has risen to take the baton from The Avengers.              


This Weekend Last Two Years


 X-Men: First Class FOX PG13 James McAvoy Michael Fassbender 

 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $68  Actual: $55

 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $160  Actual: $146

 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $207



 Get Him to the Greek UNI R Jonah Hill Russell Brand 

 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18  Actual: $18

 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $66  Actual: $61

 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $30


 Killers LG PG13 Katherine Heigl Ashton Kutcher 

 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16  Actual: $16

 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $46  Actual: $47

 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $45


 Marmaduke FOX PG Judy Greer William H Macy 

 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15  Actual: $12

 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33  Actual: $33

 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $50


 Splice WB R Adrien Brody Sarah Polley 

 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11  Actual: $7

 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23  Actual: $17

 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $9


Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.