Weekend #22 of 2012 looks like it will total about $122 million for the top 12 films, down 21% from last year’s comparable weekend and down 20% from the four-year average for the weekend. That would make it three down weekends (way down) in a row.
Opening at an estimated 3,700 theaters, Snow White and the Huntsman from Universal should average $11,000 per theater (for just over $40 million Friday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] The reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a just past lukewarm 59% positive. Snow White and the Huntsman currently stands at a preliminary $120 million domestic estimate.
| NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND | ($ millions) | |||||
| June 1-3, 2012 | Critics Positive | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||
| Snow White and the Huntsman | Uni | PG13 | 59% | 40.8 | 120 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Among the holdovers, Men in Black 3 should decline a very average 48% this weekend to $28.5 million from Friday-Sunday, while Marvel’s The Avengers should fall 40% to $22 million and third place. Everything else is basically at life support levels. And that’s the problem — there is no depth to the box office beyond a couple of films.
| RETURNING FILMS | ($ millions) | ||||
| June 1-3, 2012 | Change vs Last Weekend | Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||
| Men in Black 3 | Sony | -48% | 28.5 | 154 | |
| The Avengers | Dis | -40% | 22.0 | 611 | |
| Battleship | Uni | -55% | 5.0 | 68 | |
| The Dictator | Par | -48% | 4.8 | 66 | |
| Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | LG | -30% | 4.5 | 39 | |
| What to Expect When You’re Expecting | LG | -43% | 4.1 | 38 | |
| Dark Shadows | WB | -48% | 3.9 | 79 | |
| Chernobyl Diaries | WB | -62% | 3.1 | 14 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $152 million total, ranking 13th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $154 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like a weak $122 million, down 21% from this weekend last year and down 20% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years. This will be the third significantly down weekend in a row as nothing has risen to take the baton from The Avengers.
This Weekend Last Two Years
6/3/11
X-Men: First Class FOX PG13 James McAvoy Michael Fassbender
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $68 Actual: $55
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $160 Actual: $146
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $207
6/4/10
Get Him to the Greek UNI R Jonah Hill Russell Brand
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $66 Actual: $61
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $30
Killers LG PG13 Katherine Heigl Ashton Kutcher
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $46 Actual: $47
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $45
Marmaduke FOX PG Judy Greer William H Macy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $33
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $50
Splice WB R Adrien Brody Sarah Polley
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $17
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $9
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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