Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #38 of 2014 looks like $91 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, 6% above the norm for this weekend ($86 million).
Opening at 3,604 theaters, The Maze Runner from 20th Century Fox grossed $11.3 million Friday and is on track for a $31.0 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $34.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a decent $8,600 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is somewhat positive (63% positive overall and 62% positive with top critics). Maze Runner is headed for $87 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,712 theaters, A Walk Among the Tombstones from Universal grossed $4.7 million Friday and is on track for a $14.0 million opening three-day weekend (slightly below our $15.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a mediocre $5,200 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is also fairly positive (66% positive overall and 56% positive with top critics). A Walk Among the Tombstones is headed for $45 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,868 theaters, This Is Where I Leave You from Warner Brothers grossed $3.9 million Friday and is on track for an $11.2 million opening three-day weekend (near our $11.0 forecast). The film is pacing toward a sub-par $3,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is weak (43% positive overall and 34% positive with top critics). This Is Where I Leave You is headed for $33 million total domestic.
No Good Deed is headed for $9.6 million this weekend (down 60% from last weekend and below our $11.8 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for No Good Deed has been adjusted down to $57 million. Dolphin Tale 2 is headed for $8.8 million this weekend (down 44% from last weekend and below our $10.1 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Dolphin Tale 2 has been adjusted down to $50 million. Guardians of the Galaxy is headed for $5.2 million this weekend (down 36% from last weekend and fairly close to our $5.9 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Guardians of the Galaxy is $335 million.
| Weekend 38: September 19-21, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Maze Runner | Fox | [34.5] | 31.0 | 11.3 | 87 | |
| A Walk Among the Tombstones | Uni | [15.5] | 14.0 | 4.7 | 45 | |
| This Is Where I Leave You | WB | [11.0] | 11.2 | 3.9 | 33 | |
| No Good Deed | Sony | [11.8] | 9.6 | 3.0 | 57 | |
| Dolphin Tale 2 | WB | [10.1] | 8.8 | 2.1 | 50 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy | Dis | [5.9] | 5.2 | 1.4 | 335 | |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles | Par | [3.1] | 2.6 | 0.6 | 192 | |
| Let’s Be Cops | Fox | [3.0] | 2.6 | 0.8 | 86 | |
| The Drop | Fox S | [2.5] | 2.1 | 0.6 | 15 | |
| If I Stay | WB | [2.3] | 1.8 | 0.5 | 52 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $91 million total Friday-Sunday, up 6% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 25% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 38 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $91 | Maze Runner $31.0, A Walk Among the Tombstones $14.0, This Is Where I Leave You $11.2 | |
| 2013 | $73 | Prisoners $20.8, Battle of the Year $4.6 | |
| 2012 | $75 | End of Watch $13.2, House at the End of the Street $12.3, Trouble with the Curve $12.2 | |
| 2011 | $106 | Moneyball $19.5, Dolphin Tale $19.2, Abduction $10.9, Killer Elite $9.3 | |
| 2010 | $91 | The Town $23.8, Easy A $17.7, Devil $12.3, Alpha and Omega $9.1 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $86 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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